The United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has confirmed that carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions released by human activities are the “unequivocal” primary cause of the global warming that is destabilising world climate.[i] 

The IPCC scientific experts also warn that if such emissions continue to increase at the current rate, global warming will be around 3 °Celsius by 2100.[ii] This will lead to more frequent and ever-larger climate disasters on a worldwide scale.

To avert this awful future, the IPCC experts say the world must limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperature. [iii]    The carbon emitted since the start of the industrial period has already caused a 1.07 °C increase.[iv]  And at current annual global emission rates, we will overshoot 1.5 °C by 2030.[v]  

To stay within the 1.5 °C safety limit, the IPCC prescribes the following remedial action:
·       Reduce global emissions consistently so that in 2030, emissions will be about 45 per cent below 2010 levels.[vi]
·        After 2030, continue reducing emissions to reach global net-zero emissions by 2050.[vii]
·        By 2100, remove billions of carbon emission tonnes that have  accumulated in the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial period, in about 1750. [viii] 

Understandably, the efforts of every country and person in the world are needed towards these ends.   However, about 25 countries are responsible for over 80% of all the historic carbon released since 1750.   And most of these countries still emit over 80% of the current annual global carbon emissions.[ix] Therefore, to have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, these top-emitting countries must undertake the lion’s share of the remedial action prescribed by the IPCC. 

In November 2021, world leaders are set to convene in Glasgow for the 26th global climate summit, known as COP26. 

In preparation for COP26, each country had to submit its revised national emissions reduction plan.  The United Nations has found that these submitted plans will in 2030 yield global emissions of about 16% above 2010 levels – in dire contrast to the 45% reduction from 2010 levels advised by the IPCC. [x]   The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, deems that these plans would keep the world on a “catastrophic pathway.”[xi]  

Additionally, the 1.5 °C safety limit requires 2021 global emissions to be about 1.5 billion tonnes less than in 2020,.  Global emissions are instead on course to be about 1.5 billion tonnes more than 2020 levels![xii]

The IPCC has underlined that our window of opportunity to stay within the safety limit of 1.5°C is only of a few years now and rapidly closing.   If current carbon emissions do not drastically decline, the world will suffer a global warming of at least 3°C and increasingly catastrophic climate extremes by 2100.  In many parts of the world, people will struggle to survive, tottering from one climate disaster to another. Other parts of the world will be rendered uninhabitable, creating a humanitarian crisis on a scale the world has never seen.

It is acknowledged that all citizens must play their part and go through the discomfort of making some changes to lifestyle habits.  However, world leaders need to spearhead and catalyse the radical actions needed.  Particularly, at the COP26 global climate summit, world leaders need to:

1.   Agree that the IPCC prescribed emissions reduction and carbon removal targets shall be borne by countries in direct proportion to each country’s historic emissions to date. That is, the 25 countries responsible for over 80% of historic emissions must accept to collectively undertake around 80% of the global emissions reduction and removal targets prescribed by the IPCC.

2.   Agree to revise national carbon emissions reduction plans accordingly and to submit the revised plans by a set date to the United Nations for review. 

3.   Agree to publish an annual progress report on the implementation of the national emissions reduction plan, and to submit this report to the United Nations for review.

4.   Agree to urgently switch coal and oil power plants to natural gas until these plants can be feasibly closed down, starting with the top polluting power plants.

5.   Renew top historic emitter countries’ commitment to provide 100 billion dollars annually to low-emitting countries so that the latter may continue their development through carbon-free, albeit more challenging, means.

6.  Renew low-emitter countries' commitment to pursue their development through carbon-free means.

Please sign this petition urging world leaders, particularly the leaders of the top 25 historic country emitters, to make the needed critical commitments at COP26.  Let's make them aware that all over the world we know what they need to do, and that we are holding them accountable at COP26.

Let's be on the right side of history for humanity.

Thank you for supporting this petition.

Catherine Camilleri
Ordinary citizen, mum, high-school teacher and community activist.

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References

[i] A.1, Page SPM – 5, IPCC. 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021:  Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. V Masson-Delmotte, P Zhai, A Pirani, et al. (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

[ii] Figure SPM.4 a), Page SPM-16, IPCC. 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC.  

[iii] B.2, Page SPM-19,  IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.  Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

[iv] Table SPM.2, Page SPM - 38, IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.  Contribution of WGI to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

[v] https://theconversation.com/ipcc-says-earth-will-reach-temperature-rise-of-about-1-5-in-around-a-decade-but-limiting-any-global-warming-is-what-matters-most-165397 accessed on 20th August 2021

[vi]  C.1, Page 12, IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. V Masson-Delmotte, P Zhai, H-O Pörtner, et al. (eds.,) Geneva: World Meteorological Organization. Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

[vii] C.1, Page 12, IPCC. 2018. Summary for Policymakers.  In: Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C.

[viii] C.3, Page 17, IPCC. 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C.

[ix] https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions accessed on 12th August 2021.

[x] Article 10 (b), Page 5, National determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Synthesis report by the secretariat (unfccc.int)[xi] UN warns of climate change failure without more emissions cuts - Axios  accessed on 20th September 2021.

[xii] https://www.iea.org/news/global-carbon-dioxide-emissions-are-set-for-their-second-biggest-increase-in-history accessed on 22nd September 2021.