Help us change Sweden's strategy against COVID-19

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HELP US IN CONVINCING THE SWEDISH GOVERNMENT TO CHANGE THEIR COVID-19 STRATEGY NOW!

### In Swedish below###

We ask the Swedish Government to take stricter measures to tackle the Covid-19 emergency in Sweden.

Unlike all other countries in Europe, the Swedish Government, under the counselling of Anders Tegnell, has decided to employ a very moderate and relaxed strategy to tackle the sanitary emergency of Covid-19. Similarly to the former British strategy, the Swedish Government would like to achieve herd immunity.

Herd immunity is a strategy that works very well when a vaccine is available and when it has been proved that the disease cannot be contracted a second time after recovery. In the specific case of Covid-19, such a vaccine is not yet available to protect the high-risk groups and it has not been proved yet that the disease cannot be contracted twice.

Thus herd immunity is very risky.

On top of that, it requires that a large portion of inhabitants of a country gets infected: for example, if 60% of people of a country with 10 million inhabitants (similar to Sweden) gets the virus and if the mortality rate is 1% (which is what has been estimated), it means that 1%*60%*10,000,000 people would die.

Herd immunity implies that 60,000 people would die in a country as big as Sweden

A note on Covid-19 death rate from WHO (who_report):

"Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care."

We are also being optimistic about the 1% mortality rate because this is the rate that we have when the hospitals still have the means to cure the patients with stronger symptoms. 

To convince the British government to change strategy and not pursue with herd immunity, the Imperial College has published a report that compares all the possible strategies and the associated risks on the population: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

As a result of this report, the UK has drastically changed the strategy and has started to apply much stricter measures, such as closing schools, playgrounds, pubs and restaurants and to impose social distancing.

The Swedish Government says that they follow the suggestions of the experts: in reality, many other Swedish experts have shown strong worries regarding the chosen strategy, as you can read here https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7428645. Five eminent Professors from Karolinska Institutet and one from Chalmers och Göteborgs Universitet have initiated a petition for researchers in Swedish Universities and Swedish researchers living abroad, more than 2000 researchers have signed by March 25th (https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf33TUrewe9i2i-jfsgS6HORdB2aI8g6K1Kj2Gt1-H4r_AUTw/viewform).

Other interesting reads about the risks of the various strategies to tackle this medical emergency:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/swedish-pm-warned-russian-roulette-covid-19-strategy-herd-immunity

Also, we need to remember that the virus spreads very fast and through carriers with no sympthoms, so it is not enough to encourage who is sick and with symptoms to stay at home.

### in Swedish ###

HJÄLP OSS ÖVERYGA DEN SVENSKA REGERINGEN ATT ÄNDRA SIN STRATEGI MOT COVID-19 NU!

Vi villatt den svenska regeringen ska ta hårdare tag mot COVID-19 i Sverige

Den svenska regeringen har i motsats till andra europeiska länder, under ledning av Anders Tegnell, bestämt att hantera hälsokrisen COVID-19 med en snarare avslappnad strategi och attityd. Likt den strategi som Storbritannien tidigare antagit, vill den svenska regeringen uppnå flockimmunutet.

Flockimmunitet är en strategi som fungerar mycket väl när vaccin finns till handa och när det finns bevisat att sjukdomen inte kan smitta en andra gång. I detta specifika fall med COVID-19 finns det ännu inget vaccin för att skydda mot högriskgrupper och det finns heller inget bevis på att man inte kan smittas en andra gång.

Därför är flockimmunitet en hög risk regeringen tar.

Dessutom kräver flockimmunitet att en mycket stor andel av befolkningen smittas, exempel: om 60% av en bfolkning på 10 miljoner invånare (så som Sverige) smittas, och om dödligheten ligger på 1% (vilket är uppskattat), betyder det att 1%*60%*10,000,000 människor skulle mista livet, alltså 60,000 människor skulle mista livet i ett land jämförbart med Sverige.

En uppskattning om 1% i dödlighet är ett positivt nummer i detta sammanhang, eftersom det är den mängd människor som sjukhusen har möjlighet att ta emot och behandla.

Vi får inte glöma att viruset även sprids fort via asymptomatiska människor, alltså människor utan symptom - det är inte rätt och tillräckligt att uppmuntra endast de som har symptom att stanna hemma.