The 2019 report to the Australian Alps Liaison Committee prepared by Stuart Cairns, quoted numbers of Brumbies living in the Australian Alps National Parks as at 2019, (before the wildfires of December 2019) cannot be accurate, and the report must not be relied upon by National Parks and Wildlife Services or Parks Victoria as an accurate reflection of actual numbers of Brumbies living today in either Kosciuszko National Park or in other areas of the Australian Alps National Park.
Decision Makers must not make any decisions about Brumby populations without commissioning a fresh count of Brumbies in the Australian Alps National Park. The methodology used also impacts upon Brumbies in the Barmah Park and must not be relied upon for the same reasons.
There are better ways of conducting a survey in the Australian Alps National Park and Barmah that do not include the methodology used thus far. This may be by drone and camera, or in the case of Barmah greater reliance can be made of local on ground numbers count where the population is small.
Parts of the Alpine Park are in Victoria, the jurisdiction of Parks Victoria. The numbers being quoted by both managers are flawed particularly as they fail to take into consideration the impacts of the 2019 wildfires upon Brumbies living in the Australian Alps National Park.
The first aerial survey of 2001 reported 5,200 Brumbies living in the Australian Alps National Parks. The survey repeated in 2003 found a reduction of 71% of Brumbies being burnt by wildlfires[1]
It is therefore only reasonable and rational to believe the wildfires of 2019 had the same if not greater impact upon the Australian Alps National Parks Brumby populations, particularly when well-known mobs have simply disappeared from the face of the earth and the breadth of the wildifires of 2019 were far more ferocious than anything previously experienced.
A survey report prepared by Montague Drake in 2005, found an estimated population in the Kosciuszko National Park at a total of 1710 Brumbies. Therefore, starting with the population estimate for 2005 of 1710 Brumbies, and using an increase in population of the maximum of 17% (a scientifically accepted increase) and taking into account the removals by Managers (taken from the reports and published graph attached) the total number of Brumbies in the Kosciuszko National Park would be approximately 2984 in 2014 and 3508 in 2016.
Continuing with the same 17% increase and accounting for removals, as per the published graph the total estimated figure for the Kosciuszko National Park for 2019 would be 5155. Well below the transact survey finding of over 19,000.
Clearly, there are serious factors that have been ignored and continue to be ignored and display the flaws in the numbers being relied upon by National Parks and Wildlife Services and Parks Victoria.
The 2019 report claims to build upon a previous survey of 2014 and 2019 conducted in three survey blocks, identified as North Kosciuszko, Bago-Maragle and Byadbo-Victoria, within this region using survey designs using the automated survey design engine in DISTANCE 6.0 (Cairns 2014). Reference is also made to other previous surveys in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2009.
The last 2019 survey alleges, according to the transect survey, a total of 25,318 Brumbies living in the Australian Alps National Parks and is strongly disputed.
The survey conducted in 2019 was essentially a repeat of the one conducted in 2014. The 2014 survey alleges a total of 301 clusters of Brumbies and in 2019 a total of 455 clusters of Brumbies which would mean there would have to be approximately 6,330 groups of Brumbies over the Australian Alps Parks, noted within the Cairns report as generally being comprised of 4 Brumbies per group.
The Cairns report acknowledges that the transects being surveyed are in areas where horses are known to be abundant, and data is then extrapolated to cover areas in which horse numbers are known to be very low, which would we believe give a false representation of actual numbers.
The Feral Horse Removal statement (page 9 Review of 2008 Management Plan) states there have been 3183 horses removed from the Kosciuszko Park from 2002 up to 2015. In 2016 there were approximately 210 horses removed and in 2017 there were approximately 150 Brumbies removed (relying upon the graph of Brumby removals)
https://www.theland.com.au/story/5850363/graph-shows-how-brumby-removal-has-halted-in-kosciuszko/
Relying upon the reported removals up to 2015, and then using the graph for removals in the North Kosciusko area alone, for 2016-2018 and allowing a 17% maximum increase, the calculated estimate of the number of Brumbies in this area of the park would be, 1795 in 2014 and 2581 in 2019. In some years there have been significant removals of Brumbies for this area (616 in 2012).
The planned removal of 4,000 Brumbies, will remove all Brumbies living in this area of the Alpine National Park, but if there are, as suspected by the locals, more likely even lower than the number given above of 5155 in the whole park, the removal of 4,000 Brumbies will devastate the population.
If there are, as suspected, around 2581 in total in the North Kosciuszko section, then this would be of course the total removal of every Brumby in this area.
The same disaster may impact Barmah, with locals estimating only 250 Brumbies living in 77,000 acreas whereas similar methodology asserts 780 Brumbies.
Also Referenced
https://theaustralianalps.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2009feralhorsealpssurvey
[1] Report prepared for the Australian Alps Liaison CommitteeDr Michelle Dawson August 2009 p 4
With Thanks to Joanne Canning for her data and calculations used to inform this update.