Hi Everyone,
The Homes supplied estimation figures have been quoted by officials and the media, as a way, to try and justify the level of countryside and indeed peat destruction for which these developments are responsible. However, none of these developments can meet anywhere near the homes supplied estimations they are claiming.
Homes supplied estimations
The estimations are based on the average homes energy consumption for electric. But the energy supply to the homes is produced from a number of different sources such as gas Fire power stations ( see ScreenShot above from energy dashboard) So the amount of energy produced by (onshore) wind, in the average homes supplied, only makes up a small part of that supply figure. This means that the developers estimations are not accurate as they are implying to supply homes solely. If they supply homes solely from their own energy, this results in a far lower end figure.
Calculations
Onshore Capacity (MW) :- The total installed capacity of all onshore wind farms.
Load Factor
The load factor is the actual output of a turbine benchmarked against its theoretical minimum output in a year.
The load factor is calculated by RenewableUK as a rolling average of the past five years using data (on an Unchanged Configuration Basis) from the Digest of UK Energy Statistics published by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, using stats 2019-2023 (released in July 2024):
onshore wind: 26.34%
offshore wind: 40.58%
DESNZ "all wind" (onshore + offshore): Average = 30.82%
Homes Powered Equivalent
Calculated using the most recent statistics from DESNZ showing that annual GB average domestic household consumption is 3,239kWh (as of January 2024, updated annually).RenewableUK calculates homes powered as: number of megawatts installed, multiplied by DESNZ's "all wind" (onshore + offshore) load factor expressed as a fraction of 1, multiplied by number of hours in a year, divided by average annual domestic electricity consumption expressed in Mwh.
To Demonstrate, Here's the 3 examples of Figures for proposals around the mountain. I finish on 5 examples of the many developments ( approved ) that have inflated, inaccurate figures :-
WIND
DNS/3276725 for (RES) Wind farm
So The 55Mw wind farm claims to supply estimated 55,000 homes...
Onshore load Factor Calculation using 26.34%%
55mw x (0.2634 onshore load factor ) x ( 8760 Hours per year ) = 126906.12
divided by 3.239Mwh ( average annual consumption ) = 39180.648 homes
Some searches reveal (onshore alone) contributed to only 12.3% energy in 2024.
39180 Homes x 12.3% (onshore wind produced energy only) = 4,819 Homes Supplied estimation ( not 55,000 Homes estimation claimed to supply)
CAS-02114-J9X4S6 for (Pennant Walters) Trecelyn Wind Farm
The 4 turbine 16.8Mw ( Actual Rating, not 20MW) Wind Farm developer claims to supply a estimated 13,135 Homes.
Using the above calculation, 16.8 Mw and (Onshore load factor)
16.8Mw x ( 0.2634 onshore load factor ) x ( 8760 Hours per year ) = 38764.05
divided by 3.239Mwh ( average annual consumption ) = 11,967.90 homes
11967 x 12.3% (onshore wind produced energy) = 1,471 homes supplied estimation
( Also transmission losses ( up to 17% ) would reduce those numbers )
SOLAR
Solar is much the same in this country and due to the nature of the British weather, its debatable if they ever repay their carbon foot print in the UK.
CAS-02446-R8X8W2 for (Cenin) Solar Farm
Here is the Solar Farm Calculation which claim an estimated 12,500 Homes from 35Mw
Using:- UK Solar capacity Factor and Calculation for solar Annual Energy Output including capacity factor of 10%
The capacity utilization factor refers to the ratio of the actual output of a solar plant compared to its rated or installed capacity over a period of time
PV panels have a capacity factor of around 10% in the UK climate. Note:- Nothing produced at night in dark & minimal production on winter days or downtime and Maintenace.
Calculation:-
1. Calculate Annual Energy Output:
Convert the solar farm's capacity to kilowatts: 35 MW = 35,000 kW
Calculate the total energy produced in a year at full capacity: 35,000 kWh x 8760 hours/year = 306,600,000 kWh
Apply the capacity factor (10%): 306,600,000 kWh x 10% = 30,660,000 kWh
2. Divide by Average Household Consumption:
Divide the total energy output by the average household consumption: 30,660,000 kWh divided by 3239kwh annual consumption per home = 9465 homes
According to the DESNZ average household electric consumption data for 2024, solar energy contributed 5.2% , so 9465 x 5.2% = 492 homes supplied Estimation
(( But if you can only use 80% of the batteries storage without damaging them )) ( 80% of 35MW ) =28000kW x 8760=245,280,000 kWh
245,280,000 x 10% ( capacity Factor ) = 24,528,000 kWh
24,528,000kWh divided by 3239 kWh annual consumption per home = 7572 Homes
7572 x 5.2% = 393 homes Supplied Estimation
Also up to as much as 17% power losses can arise from transmission losses through cables. Which could result in (393 Homes – 17%) Only 326 Homes supplied Estimation
This has resulted in Developments being passed on an inaccurate basis, For example :-
DNS/3244499 - Garn Fach Wind Farm EDF Energy:-
In this example I will use their average household consumption figure of 3772 Kwh the developer has used.
So The 85Mw wind farm claims to supply estimated 69,000 homes...
Onshore load Factor Calculation using 26.34%%
85mw x (0.2634 onshore load factor ) x ( 8760 Hours per year ) = 196127.64
divided by 3.772Mwh ( average annual consumption ) = 51995.66 homes
Some searches reveal (onshore alone) contributed to only 12.3% energy in 2024.
51995 Homes x 12.3% (onshore wind produced energy) = 6,395 Homes Supplied estimation ( not 69,000 Homes estimation claimed to supply) Minus transmission losses.
Here's some others passed (I have used 3239Kwh for the average annual consumption figure-
DNS/3279676 - Craig -y- Perchych ( Cyp ) Solar Farm (10MW Developer estimates 5300 Homes) Actual 112 Homes supplied Estimation (@ 80% battery) or 92 Homes if 17% transmission losses were to be Factored in.
DNS/3270299 - Mynydd Carn - y - Cefn Wind Farm (34MW Developer estimates 21,084 Homes) Actual 2979 Homes supplied Estimation or 2472 Homes if 17% transmission losses were to be Factored in.
DNS/3251545- Bretton Hall Solar Farm (30MW Developer estimates 8400 Homes) Actual 337 Homes supplied Estimation ( @ 80% battery) or 279 Homes if 17% transmission losses were to be Factored in.
DNS/3260565 Brynrhyd Solar Farm (30MW Developer estimates 10,000 Homes ) Actual 337 Homes supplied Estimation ( @ 80% battery) or 279 Homes if 17% transmission losses were to be Factored in.
Wind Turbine Electric Consumption
All WIND turbines consume electric from the grid when in service mode (to keep the viable). None of the wind farms developers are providing their turbine annual electric consumption? This would reduce their homes supplied estimations even lower.
The End Result
The developers are deceiving for their own financial gains with their homes supply estimation claims. Both wind and Solar developers are making false claims about their products capabilities and misleading the public.
This has resulted in the renewable developments being passed by PEDW and the Welsh Government on an inaccurate basis and without the full development information and with incorrect details.
Currently not only is the destruction being carried out throughout the country unjustified but it has resulted in excessive energy bills all at the extra cost to the public through Curtailment Money ( money developers are paid to switch off ) and Subsidies added to the energy bills, which they have no choice but to pay.
These developments are about the Curtailment money not electric. Currently The Developers can't Loose.
Officials that now have knowledge of the Renewable inflated Homes Figures:-
All members of Welsh Senedd in Constituencies throughout Wales including Lynne Neagle ( Torfaen ), The Climate Change Committee, Welsh Government Planning Including Rebecca Evans (Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Energy and Planning), PEDW, All MP leaders in Constituencies throughout Wales ( including Local MP's Nick Thomas Symonds ( Torfaen ), Chris Evans - (Caerphilly ), All Conucil Leaders throughout Constituencies in Wales ( including Local leaders Anthony Hunt- ( Torfaen ) & Sean Morgan – ( Caerphilly )
Will any of these people do anything about this? Well that remains to been seen!
No amount of negotiation can change the facts. Whether Glass Panels, 70m high or 200m high turbines, they all require huge amounts of destruction through Road networks, concrete foundations and industrialization of our picturesque Countryside and Mountains. Enough damage has been done. America and a number of other European countries have rightly faced these facts.
Many thanks for now & Enjoy the Bank holiday Weekend! Matt