Demand Congress Investigates the USGS Polar Bear Analyses
Good conservation requires good science. The Inuit argue it is the time of the most polar bears. But he USGS models suggest dramatic declines by mid century.
Studies by the US Geological Survey (USGS) are guilty of critical sins of omission that defy scientific explanations. The USGS has published results suggesting polar bears are suffering from less sea ice and climate change. However a multitude of published evidence from observations and ecological studies reveal:
1) decadal cycles of heavy spring time ice are most detrimental to ringed seal reproduction and shown to be the most critical factor affecting polar bears sustenance and survival. Yet not one single USGS model assessing polar bear population change includes the effects of heavy springtime ice.
2) During periods of heavy springtime ice and resulting reduced ringed seal reproduction, polar bears emigrate to other regions with ample seal pups. That temporary emigration prevents bears from being recaptured, and increases the probability that mark and recapture studies will misinterpret temporary emigration of bears as dead bears. That leads to lower survival and population estimates. That misinterpretation has resulted in the USGS suggesting dramatic and unrealistic drops in survival and abundance of Southern Beaufort Sea bears while most other populations are stable or increasing.
3) Mark and recaptures studies have shown that calculations of survival of radio-collared bears (biological survival) can minimize such misingterpretations, but the USGS has never published the biological survival calculations.
Read more details of published evidence here: http://landscapesandcycles.net/petition-to-investigate-usgs-polar-bear-models.html
- Committee on Science, Space and Technology
Demand Congress Investigate the USGS Polar Bear Analyses
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