Petition to the Loudoun County School Board

Request to Delay Rezoning Plan 280 for Madison’s Trust Elementary for Two Years

We, the undersigned families and community members from Brambleton and Willowsford Grant, respectfully ask the Loudoun County School Board to make a targeted delay to Rezoning Plan 280 by keeping planning zones DS08.1, DS08.2, DS08.3, and DN36.8 assigned to Madison’s Trust Elementary.

This is not a request to reopen the entire rezoning process, but is rather a narrow request focused only on Madison’s Trust Elementary, based on concerns about enrollment data, projections, and the real-world impact on students, families, and staff.

Background

On December 16, the School Board approved Rezoning Plan 280, which removes several planning zones from Madison’s Trust Elementary and significantly reduces the school’s projected enrollment. This decision would move a large number of students and result in major staffing changes.

Since that vote, additional information and public statements by Board members have raised serious concerns about whether the enrollment assumptions used for Madison’s Trust Elementary were accurate and fully understood at the time of the decision.

Key Concerns

1. Independent data shows enrollment is declining faster than assumed

Independent data from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center shows that Loudoun County Public Schools are experiencing a sharper enrollment decline than reflected in LCPS’s projections (University of Virginia, Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, School Enrollment Projections Methodology, January 16, 2024, coopercenter.org) 

The Cooper Center’s projections are built using a grade progression ratio approach, which starts with current enrollment and birth data, then measures how cohorts progress through grades based on recent trends and actual births rather than staff assumptions. Kindergarten projections are tied directly to birth counts from five years earlier, and multiple years of cohort trends are combined to smooth volatility, especially in declining grades. 

Using this methodology, the Cooper Center projects a much larger countywide decline in public school enrollment than LCPS’s own internal figures. Whereas LCPS discussions have referenced a projected decline closer to 300 students per year, the Weldon Cooper Center’s modeling — grounded in actual demographic data and cohort trends — suggests a decline closer to 700 students per year in the near term. 

When two credible forecasting approaches diverge by this magnitude, it indicates that LCPS’s projections may be overly optimistic, especially at schools like Madison’s Trust where current enrollment already shows smaller incoming cohorts and broader county patterns of decline. Proceeding with permanent boundary changes without reconciling these differing forecasts risks relying on assumptions that are not supported by the best available demographic evidence.

2. LCPS Enrollment Model Assumptions

In periods of declining enrollment, the LCPS projection model is less reliable because it is anchored to prior-year enrollment totals and then adjusted using top-down and bottom-up ratios selected through staff judgment. 

This structure works reasonably well when enrollment is stable or growing, but it breaks down when enrollment is falling, because inflated historical totals are carried forward. At Madison’s Trust Elementary, total enrollment of 1,075 students is driven by unusually large upper-grade cohorts, including 221 students in 4th grade and 196 students in 5th grade. These 417 students will exit the school by the end of the 2026–2027 year, yet the model begins with this elevated total as a baseline. In contrast, incoming cohorts are much smaller, with only 147 students in Kindergarten and 163 students each in 1st and 2nd grades. Using prior-year totals multiplied by selected coefficients, therefore, overstates future enrollment unless those coefficients explicitly reflect continued decline. 

Judgment-based adjustments further increase this risk, as they can smooth or delay recognition of declines already visible in cohort sizes. The result is a projection that remains artificially high even as younger grades show a clear downward trend, causing the model to lag actual conditions and produce overly optimistic short-term enrollment expectations.

3. Near-term enrollment at Madison’s Trust is likely to ease naturally

Madison’s Trust Elementary’s current enrollment levels are driven by unusually large upper-grade cohorts that will transition out of the school over the next two years. As of September 30, 2025, Madison’s Trust enrolls 221 students in 4th grade and 196 students in 5th grade, a total of 417 students who will advance to middle school by the end of the 2026–2027 school year. These cohorts will be replaced by significantly smaller incoming classes. Current Kindergarten enrollment is 147 students, with 163 students in both 1st and 2nd grades, meaning incoming cohorts are roughly 60–75 students smaller per grade than the cohorts exiting the school. Even if Kindergarten enrollment remains flat, this rolling cohort structure will produce a substantial and predictable decline in total enrollment without any boundary changes. 

This demonstrates that enrollment pressure at Madison’s Trust is temporary and already resolving, and that the scope of rezoning approved under Plan 280 does not account for the near-term, data-driven decline already embedded in the school’s grade-level enrollment.

4. Likely Enrollment at Madison’s Trust by the 2028–2029 School Year

Using LCPS’s September 30, 2025 grade-level enrollment data as a starting point, Madison’s Trust Elementary’s current enrollment of 1,075 students is driven by unusually large upper-grade cohorts that will roll off naturally over the next three years. Specifically, the school currently has 221 students in 4th grade and 196 students in 5th grade, a combined 417 students who will exit to middle school by the end of the 2026–2027 school year. These cohorts will be replaced by significantly smaller classes, with current Kindergarten enrollment at 147 students and Grades 1 and 2 at 163 students each.

If incoming Kindergarten cohorts remain at or near current levels, which is consistent with observed trends both at Madison’s Trust and countywide, total enrollment at Madison’s Trust would be expected to decline by approximately 250–350 students by the 2028–2029 school year. This would place Madison’s Trust in a likely enrollment range of approximately 700–825 students, before any rezoning is applied.

By contrast, LCPS projections that assume enrollment remaining near current levels implicitly require incoming Kindergarten cohorts to increase from 147 students today to more than 200 students per year, despite a documented downward trend in early-grade enrollment and independent projections showing continued countywide decline. The gap between these realistic cohort-based estimates and LCPS’s higher projections highlights why immediate, permanent boundary changes are premature and why a pause through the 2028–2029 school year would allow decisions to be grounded in actual enrollment outcomes rather than optimistic assumptions.

5. Future housing assumptions may not match reality

The current new-housing student-yield assumptions used by LCPS do not accurately reflect real-world enrollment outcomes. These yield factors were developed in 2016 during a period of rapid growth and higher birth rates and have not been recalibrated for today’s environment of declining enrollment, smaller household sizes, and changing demographics. As a result, projected enrollment attributed to future housing construction is systematically overstated. Recent experience shows that new residential development is generating far fewer students than the model assumes, yet these outdated yield assumptions continue to be used to justify permanent boundary changes. Without transparent, evidence-based yield calculations tied to recent enrollment data and verified housing delivery timelines, reliance on projected growth from new construction is not a sound basis for removing zones from Madison’s Trust Elementary.

6. Evidence That Enrollment Projections Have Not Matched Actual Enrollment

There is a documented record showing that LCPS’s enrollment projection model has failed to match real-world enrollment, resulting in repeated corrective rezoning. In recent boundary actions associated with the openings of Elaine E. Thompson Elementary School and Henrietta Lacks Elementary School, actual September enrollment quickly diverged from the projections used to justify those boundary decisions. Within a short period, LCPS was forced to adjust boundaries again, including moving the same neighborhoods multiple times. This documented mismatch between projected and observed enrollment demonstrates that the current model does not reliably reflect real demographic conditions. Proceeding with permanent boundary changes at Madison’s Trust Elementary using this same model repeats a proven failure rather than correcting it.

7. The plan reduces Madison’s Trust far below typical planning levels

Plan 280 leaves Madison’s Trust operating well below normal utilization targets. This appears to be an overcorrection and increases the likelihood that boundaries will need to be changed again in a few years.

Frequent boundary changes are disruptive and undermine stability for families and staff.

8. Staffing impacts are immediate and hard to undo

The enrollment reduction at Madison’s Trust would lead to significant staff reassignments. Once educators are moved, those decisions are difficult to reverse, even if enrollment projections later change.

Given the magnitude of these staffing impacts, the data supporting them should be especially strong and carefully reviewed.

9. Transfers and special permissions may undo the intended outcome

Board discussions have acknowledged that seats created by rezoning may later be filled through transfers or special permissions. If that occurs, the capacity rationale for Plan 280 is weakened, while the disruption to Madison’s Trust families and staff remains permanent.

10. New Information and Board Statements Warrant Reconsideration

After the December vote, the School Board cited Robert’s Rules of Order as a reason not to revisit Plan 280. At the same time, Board members have publicly acknowledged that votes may and should be reconsidered when new or clarified information comes to light.

Since December, several material developments have occurred. There is now greater visibility into the enrollment assumptions and projection methods used for Madison’s Trust Elementary, along with independent data indicating a steeper countywide enrollment decline than previously presented. In addition, Board members have publicly recognized the scale of the impact at Madison’s Trust, including the displacement of a large number of students and staff.

During subsequent discussions, Board member Jon Pepper described the effect of proceeding with this rezoning at Madison’s Trust as “criminal”, underscoring the severity of the consequences and the concern that the full implications were not understood at the time of the original vote.

Taken together, these new facts and on-the-record statements meet the standard for reconsideration under the Board’s own procedural framework and justify a targeted review and amendment of Plan 280 as it applies to Madison’s Trust Elementary.

Our Request

We respectfully ask the School Board to take the following actions:

• Delay implementation of Plan 280 for Madison’s Trust Elementary for two years. This delay would allow currently larger cohorts to naturally move through the school, at which point enrollment data will more accurately reflect long-term trends. Available data already shows meaningful enrollment decline, demonstrating that immediate boundary changes are not necessary and risk repeating past mistakes driven by inaccurate projections.
• Re-examine the enrollment assumptions underlying Plan 280 for Madison’s Trust Elementary, including recent enrollment trends, new-housing student yield assumptions, and the impact of transfer and special permission policies. These assumptions have repeatedly failed to align with real-world outcomes and should not be relied upon without recalibration.
• Revisit boundary changes only if and when enrollment pressures actually materialize. Should future conditions warrant action, the Board can reassess this decision in the 2028–2029 school year, grounded in observed enrollment data rather than speculative assumptions.

This is a narrow, practical request focused on one school and one issue - timing. We are not asking the Board to permanently abandon Plan 280 for Madison’s Trust Elementary School. We are asking the Board to pause, avoid repeating documented planning failures, and allow decisions to be made based on verified enrollment trends. A delay minimizes unnecessary disruption to students, families, and staff while ensuring that boundary decisions are durable, transparent, and defensible.

By signing this petition, we ask the School Board to pause implementation of Plan 280 for Madison’s Trust Elementary and make a correction grounded in facts, responsible planning, and long-term stability.