A new 450,000 SF High School is NOT the right answer for our community.

We immediately need an elementary school, expansion of Prairie Knolls Middle School, and expansion of the cafeteria, auditorium, and parking at Central High School - all of which can be done with a REDUCTION in taxes to the community...see here.

We can address our growth with a phased plan that should have triggers tied to specific growth metrics or events that should be identified in an Enrollment FORECAST.  Vote NO in March and DEMAND our Board of Education commission an INDEPENDENT Enrollment Forecast & Facilities Master Plan from expert firms.  Only THEN should a plan be presented back to the community supported by the data in the Enrollment Forecast.

Enrollment projections and enrollment forecasts are both methods used by educational institutions, government bodies, or researchers to estimate future student enrollments. They serve as essential tools for planning and decision-making, especially regarding resource allocation, budgeting, and strategic planning. Despite their similar goals, there are distinct differences between the two in terms of methodology, data reliance, and the level of certainty they provide.

District 301 continues to stress a 3% growth rate in spite of our current growth rate being 1.7% , real estate sales being at a 10-year low, and new construction expectations cut by more than half.  They have  even used clippings from articles from 1979 as "proof" that the 3% growth rate has been the standard for district planning.  The district doesn't see the need to change their methodology in spite of their catastrophic failure to properly calculate Central High School's needed capacity in 2016.

Building A Better District wants the community to understand why basing future planning on a projection instead of a forecast leads to these failures so we can make sure our district does NOT misspend our tax dollars again.

While enrollment projections provide a straightforward, trend-continued view of future enrollments based on past data, enrollment forecasts offer a more comprehensive, contextually informed prediction that attempts to account for a broader range of influencing factors and potential changes in trends. 

When anticipating capacity needs for 18-20 years into the future, projections should absolutely NOT be used.  Forecasting and including the many variables that can impact the future enrollment of our district should be used instead.

Enrollment forecasting has many factors and variables and requires the work of a professional demography firm to provide short-term (1-5 years) and middle-term (5-10 years) projections for future planning.  It requires the incorporation of:

- live birth rates (currently trending DOWN in Kane County),

- true NEW student growth by grade, (based on future new construction, currently stalled)

- current grade level sizes,

- aging-in-place consideration, ("empty nesters" after kids graduate)

- appropriate Student Yield Factor calculations (ours is too aggressive and doesn't factor lower rates for multifamily housing)

- confirmed start dates and projections for near-term new development and
careful consideration of growth plateaus that would mark the beginning of student attrition due to graduation outpacing new growth

Such analyses help districts create a phased approach to growth, addressing growth where it is happening, when it is happening.  This builds in progress checks along the way to see if the district is on track with projected growth trends to avoid building unnecessary schools that will not be maximized in the future. 

Our Board of Education must perform their fiduciary duty and appropriate due diligence by directing the district to commission an independent Enrollment Forecast, followed by a Facilities Master Plan of Central CUSD 301 before moving forward with any referendum initiative. 

DEMAND THE CENTRAL CUSD 301 BOARD OF EDUCATION PERFORM THEIR FIDUCIARY DUTY BY DIRECTING DISTRICT ADMINISTRATION TO COMMISSION AN INDEPENDENT ENROLLMENT FORECAST FOLLOWED BY A FACILITIES MASTER PLAN BEFORE MOVING FORWARD WITH ANY REFERENDUM INITIATIVE!