The final Activity Centre plans for Thornbury have now been released (find them here).

We’ve spent months analysing the detail, engaging with the process, and listening to the community.

And to be blunt — these plans confirm our worst concerns.

What’s been put forward is not a credible, balanced plan for thriving communities and ignores community and council feedback.

It is a high-risk planning model that sells out Melbourne's suburbs and:

• Will result in the demolition of existing family housing at scale
• Replaces it with predominantly small, investor-grade apartments
• Drives land price escalation, not affordability
• Provides no clear, funded infrastructure plan
• And locks in outcomes that will shape Thornbury for decades

THE EVIDENCE IS NOT ON THEIR SIDE

This is being sold as “affordability”.

But the evidence base for that claim is extremely weak and the expert record is increasingly pointing the other way.

Across planners, economists and housing experts, the warning has been remarkably consistent:

• This type of model tends to inflate land values
• It encourages speculative activity and investor-driven supply
• It delivers the wrong mix of housing for families
• And it does not materially improve affordability in the way being promised

We are not dealing with a contested, 50/50 debate.

We are seeing a growing body of expert concern and a policy that continues regardless.

SO WHO DOES THIS ACTUALLY SERVE?

When a model with this many red flags keeps moving forward, people are entitled to ask who benefits.

The answer is becoming harder to ignore.

The interests are aligned: party donors, developers, lobbyists, land speculators, investors and, as the Big Build pipeline starts to run out, parts of the broader construction ecosystem including the CFMEU all stand to benefit from a model built on continuous large-scale development.

That is why so many people are struggling to accept the claim that this is really about affordability.

Because increasingly, it looks like the housing crisis is being used as the excuse to sell out Melbourne and finally hand developers what they have coveted for years: sweeping upzoning, weaker local resistance, and a planning system reshaped around development yield rather than good city-making.

Meanwhile, communities are told to accept the loss of family homes, rising land values, infrastructure strain and investor-grade outcomes as though that is some kind of progressive reform.

It isn’t.

It is a transfer of value and power away from communities and towards vested interests, wrapped in the language of affordability.

WHAT'S NEXT?

FGT is non-partisan. We advocate for positions, not parties. But there is a clear political divide when it comes to housing policy. We will continue to advocate for positions, however it is now very clear that evidence, experts, reason and the Thornbury community mean nothing to this Labor State Government.

This Saturday, we’re holding a strategic activities committee session to refine:

• Advocacy priorities
• Campaign focus
• Community engagement
• Election-year strategy

If you want to be involved more directly — now is the time. Please reach out by email (fairgrowththornbury@gmail.com) or the webform if you would like to be more involved.

Off the back of this, we will be moving into a much more active phase.

This includes:

• Targeted engagement across affected areas
• Coordinated advocacy with aligned groups
• Increased public visibility and media engagement
• Public events

We also have media opportunities lined up, and you’ll start to see these issues reach a much broader audience.

EVENT RECAP: PAST LESSONS, FUTURE CHOICES

Last month, we hosted Past Lessons, Future Choices: Planning Victoria’s Growth at Thornbury Picture House — bringing together politicians, planning experts and experienced advocates for a screening of The Lost City of Melbourne followed by a panel discussion on the future of planning and growth in Victoria.

Importantly, this was not just a local community conversation. The panel discussed what is going wrong with the current approach and what a better path could look like.

Our panel included voices with deep experience across planning, heritage, public policy and advocacy, including Katherine Sundermann (Monash University), Mike Scott (Charter 29) and Rebecca Finn (Co-President Urban Design Forum Australia and UrbanFold).

Across the discussion, several themes came through clearly:

• planning must be about complete places, not just development capacity;
• infrastructure, services and liveability cannot be treated as an afterthought;
• top-down, one-size-fits-all planning approaches create bad outcomes and erode trust;
• and simply increasing development yield does not mean you are delivering the kinds of homes people need, or solving affordability.

It was a thoughtful, evidence-based discussion — and a reminder that serious concerns about this program are not fringe or isolated. They are being raised by people with real expertise, real experience, and a deep understanding of how cities evolve.

We’ll be sharing the recording, key takeaways and related materials shortly.

WE'VE JOINED LIVEABLE VICTORIA

We’re strengthening our voice as part of a broader, coordinated movement.

Fair Growth Thornbury has joined the Liveable Victoria alliance.

This brings together community groups across Victoria calling for:

• Better, more balanced housing outcomes
• Proper infrastructure planning
• Genuine consultation
• And a system that serves communities — not just vested interests

For more details, check out www.liveablevictoria.org.au.

This is a significant step.

Because this is not just a local issue, it is a statewide campaign, and this alliance amplifies what we can achieve together, particularly in an election year.

WE NEED YOUR HELP

Everything we’re doing — research, events, media, advocacy — is community-driven.

And scaling this effort requires people and resources.

We are actively looking for:

• Volunteers across research, communications and events
• People willing to step into more active roles
• Financial support to fund upcoming campaign activities

If you’ve been following along — this is the moment to step in.
This is the moment where community organisation matters. Please reach out by email (fairgrowththornbury@gmail.com) or our website.

In the meantime, follow us on Instagram (@fairgrowththornbury) and spread the word.

More updates soon.

Fair Growth Thornbury Team