Many are commenting on the ARC4Animals Facebook page that the 2 billion number is "wildly exaggerated", "made up", a "scam" and more.

The "Fact Check", recently completed by the ABC, using research from University statistics will help to explain why this number is indeed likely; if you include animals that were not included in previous figures, and that the numbers were based on research from 2007.

At the time of publishing this petition, fires were raging across the country, which were going to get much worse - and they did. 

The "approaching 2 billion" number took into account the animals that may have survived the fire, but not the starvation, dehydration, stress, or the extraordinary efforts of vets and carers to help them (thank you to every kind soul for your amazing efforts).

The initial estimates published in the media were relating to NSW and VIC only, prior to additional obliteration of habitat that was predicted, and has occurred.

Extrapolated directly from the article linked:

"Chris Dickman, an ecology expert from the University of Sydney, initially suggested on January 3 that as many as 480 million animals were likely to have died in the NSW fires.

Less than a week later, he updated that number to 800 million and projected "nationally" that more than 1 billion had died."

ABC Fact check verdict summarised below:

"Professor Dickman's claim is a conservative estimate.

In making the calculations, he has consciously understated animal density rates for areas that previously were bountiful habitats for diverse Australian wildlife species.

Using figures drawn from a 2007 research paper on the number of animals per hectare, and multiplying them by the extent of land affected by fire, he has concluded that more than 1 billion animals, birds and reptiles have been lost in NSW alone."

However, he has intentionally understated the animal density figures of the traditionally wetter, richer eastern ranges habitat by using lower density rates that apply in sparser, drier regions.

The calculation does not include estimates for the number of platypuses or bats lost.

As well, his estimate is based on the extent of fire-affected areas in NSW and Victoria only; it does not include areas affected by fire in other states.

** Please take the time to read the full article as this update does not include all of the "methodology" that was used to estimate numbers.

Professor Dickman used rates applicable in the sparser land areas (tablelands, slopes and plains).

"At every point, where there was a conservative option to take, we took it," he told Fact Check.

"The estimates are for terrestrial mammals — that is, everything except bats and the platypus, as shown in Table 3 of the 2007 report — birds and reptiles. So frogs, fish and invertebrates were all excluded."

Taking that into account, Professor Dickman's figures are based on 17.5 mammals, 20.7 birds and 129.5 reptiles per hectare (about 167.7 animals per hectare).

Since September 2019, the official start of the Australian fire season, bushfires have affected mostly one type of land area, namely the coastal and eastern ranges of the continent, including Victoria's east.

It should be noted, though, that fires have also devastated parts of South Australia, Western Australia, Queensland and Tasmania.

Professor Dickman told Fact Check, his estimate of 1 billion animals is based on projected losses only in NSW and Victoria; his figures do not take into account losses of wildlife in areas such as Kangaroo Island in South Australia, or in the other states.

The overall national losses are likely to be much higher than 1 billion animals.

Mark Eldridge, principal research scientist at Australian Museum in Sydney, said Professor Dickman's estimate is probably an underestimate, especially considering it does not include losses of bats, frogs or, notably, invertebrates which are foundation
elements of the food chain.

"So taking into account these sources of over-and-under-estimation, I think that [more than 1 billion] is an entirely defensible and reasonable number that probably errs on the side of caution. If you wanted to include all animals (vertebrate and invertebrate) across all impacted states and territories, then it would be a gross underestimate."
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To end:

Fires are still burning and sadly new ones coming.

2 billion was not a number plucked from thin air, it is indeed a VERY likely number that we will have to face when this fire season concludes.

We must protect what remains of Australia's unique & diverse habitats so that our incredibly varied flora & fauna has a chance to thrive.  

At this point, Australia continues to sell insane volumes of water as agribusinesses struggle through years of drought;

we allow the governments to plunder habitat for profit, and sell off wildlife corridors, and much more.

Successive governments have, for decades, done this so blaming one party over the other is pointless.

We MUST consider ourselves caretakers of this country.  That must surely include animals and environment.

Shouldn't it?