Morning market minute: The mystery of rising long-term unemployment
Dec. 5, 2024 by Joseph Brusuelas
The American labor market by any definition remains strong and, in our estimation, stands at full employment.
The numbers tell a story of resilience The unemployment rate has ranged between 3.4% and 4.3% over the past two years. The median duration of unemployment stands at 10 weeks, with initial jobless claims remaining steady at 200,000 to 225,000 and continuing claims hovering around 1.9 million.
But there a mystery amid this encouraging data: Longer-term unemployment of greater than 27 weeks is on the rise.
Through October, 22.9%, or 1.6 million people, have experienced longer-term bouts of unemployment. That is up from a cyclical low of 1.07 million in January 2023.