Subject: Modernize the NBA Draft Lottery with a Hybrid 3-Year Performance Model (70/30 Split)

 

We, the undersigned fans, players, and advocates for fair competition in the NBA, respectfully call upon league leadership to reform the current draft lottery system to better reflect true franchise needs — not short-term manipulation.

 

The Problem: A Flawed Incentive Structure

The NBA Draft Lottery is meant to support struggling teams with top young talent — but too often, it rewards those who strategically underperform in a single season. This has led to an open secret in the league: tanking works — and worse, it’s rational.

This system:

• Discourages competitiveness late in the season
• Undermines the fan experience
• Unfairly benefits franchises that “game” the system after just one down year
• Ignores the deeper struggles of teams that have consistently failed to break through

 

The Solution: A 70/30 Hybrid Lottery Model

We propose that the NBA adopt a weighted draft lottery system that considers 70% of a team’s performance over the past three seasons and 30% from the most recent season.

 

How it works:

• Every team’s lottery odds would be calculated using a formula that takes 70% of their 3-year average win total and 30% of their most recent season win total
• Teams with long-term struggles maintain strong odds
• Teams with one bad year don’t leapfrog genuinely struggling franchises
• Teams that are trending upward or downward still see meaningful movement

Why This Matters:

This model rewards sustained need, not short-term failure. It still allows recent hardship to play a role — ensuring flexibility for unexpected injuries or transitions — but it removes the incentive for end-of-season tanking.

Benefits of the 70/30 model:

• Reduces tanking without eliminating hope for rebuilds
• Rewards responsible, long-term team management
• Supports small-market teams who struggle to attract stars
• Preserves lottery excitement while restoring fairness

 

What We’re Asking For:

• Commission an exploratory committee to study implementation of a hybrid lottery model
• Pilot the model in G-League or Summer League simulations
• Present findings before the next CBA negotiations
• Engage players, media, and fans in feedback loops

The NBA has always led the way in progressive reform — from the play-in tournament to the in-season tournament — and this is the next logical step. We are not asking to remove the lottery or punish bad teams; we are asking for a more thoughtful, data-driven system that reflects franchise trajectory, not just a one-year snapshot.

 

Let’s fix the lottery — not to punish bad teams, but to reward real rebuilds.

 

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