｜日本語  |

We oppose holding the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.

Prime Minister Suga says “Japan does not have the authority to cancel or postpone the Olympics,” and insists that “only the IOC has the authority to decide.”   Unbelievably, a top IOC official affirms that “the Games will be held even under a state of emergency.” and ”The Olympics would be held even if the Prime Minister of Japan requested a cancellation” - a blatant violation of national sovereignty.

It is up to us to decide, and the time is now. 

1: Specific Strategy for Stopping the Tokyo Olympics This Year

The IOC is a private-sector non-profit association, not a UN agency or governmental organization. This means Japan’s contract with the IOC is only a commercial contract with a private-sector organization. We do have the option of not carrying out our side of the commercial contract––this is known as “breach of contract,” and of course we must be prepared to incur financial penalties for this breach. If we are prepared to pay, and there is public support for spending tax funds to do so, Japan does have the authority to stop the Tokyo Olympics from being held this year.

Japan can declare to the IOC and to the world: “To safeguard our lives, and to avoid the risk of holding an Olympics that descends into chaos, we want to halt the Olympics this year, and we are prepared to pay the compensation required.”

Very few countries in the world would choose to host the Games amid the global coronavirus pandemic. Moreover, Japan’s vaccination rollout performance has been atrocious: dead last in vaccination rates among the 37 developed nations of the OECD, and somewhere around 110th globally (as of May 18).

 Japan does not actually have to use the negatively loaded term “breach of contract.” We can simply say, “We have made a decision not to hold the Olympics here this year.” The IOC does not have the power to force us to hold them anyway.

However, the IOC does have broadcasting rights fees to cover and payment agreements with various sports organizations. From the standpoint of the IOC, the cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics is unacceptable unless Japan pays a reasonable amount of compensation. On the other hand, if Japan agrees to pay an amount of compensation that unquestionably covers the IOC’s costs, the IOC has no reason to refuse. If they were to refuse, they would certainly be harshly criticized around the world.

2: Expenses Required to Stop the Tokyo Olympics This Year   

This section outlines the maximum amount Japan should be prepared to pay to stop the Tokyo Olympics.

2-1. IOC Total Revenue  Let’s have a look at the IOC annual report .  The graph on page118 shows the change in total IOC revenue over time.

As the graph shows, IOC revenue has been rising with each four-year period. Total revenue for the most recent period, 2013-2016, was 627 billion yen (5.7 billion USD). Total income from 2017 to 2020 (actually extended until 2021) is unclear as figures have not been released yet, but based on the assumption that the IOC is aiming for increased revenue compared to the preceding period, and the increase in income is tentatively set at 10%, the total IOC revenue forecast for 2017 to 2021 can be calculated at 689.7 billion yen (A).

2-2. Broadcasting Rights Fees

As the graph above shows, broadcasting rights account for 73% of IOC revenue. This means that broadcasting rights for the period in question can be calculated at 689.7 billion yen (A) x 0.73, meaning the estimated global broadcasting rights fees come to 503.5 billion yen (B). Broadcasting rights fees contracts for NBC Universal, which holds broadcasting rights in the United States, for two summer and winter Games (Sochi, Rio de Janeiro, PyeongChang, Tokyo) have been made publicly available, and the total for the eight years up to and including the Tokyo Olympics comes to 481.8 billion yen (4.38 billion USD). This figure is for eight years, so divided into four-year periods it is 240.9 billion yen (C), and based on (B) and (C), NBC Universal pays approximately 52% of global broadcasting rights fees.

This fact gives substance to reports that NBC Universal has a strong influence on the Olympics.

Now, let us consider the value of broadcasting rights for the summer and winter Olympics. Taking into account the broadcast time and ratings of each tournament, the summer tournament is worth approximately 70% and the winter tournament approximately 30% of the total. Thus the value of worldwide broadcasting rights for the Tokyo Olympics can be calculated at 352.5 billion yen (D), or 70% of 503.5 billion yen (B).

2-3. Revenue from Top Sponsors

Based on the table above, approximately 18% of the IOC’s total revenue comes from top sponsors. 18% of the IOC’s total revenue of 627 billion yen, the total revenue from top sponsors comes to 112.9 billion yen. Assuming that the total amount of top-sponsor revenue increases by 10% from the previous four-year period, it can be calculated as 112.9 billion yen x 1.1, or 124.2 billion yen (E). Assuming that the summer tournament accounts for 70% of value, 70% of 124.2 billion yen (E), or 86.9 billion yen (F) can be calculated as the value of top sponsor revenue applicable the Tokyo Olympics.

If the Tokyo Olympics is canceled, it is reasonable to calculate the total amount to be refunded to top sponsors at 86.9 billion yen (F).

2-4. IOC Expenditures

How does the IOC spend its massive revenue? The graph on page119 shows that 10% of the IOC’s total revenue stays within the organization and is used for various activities. And, somewhat surprisingly, 90% of the total revenue is paid to external organizations.

For example, in the case of the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics, the Rio Olympic Committee received 168.4 billion yen, other Olympic Committees of 206 countries and regions around the world received 59.4 billion yen. The IOC paid 59.4 billion yen in contributions to international sports federations (World Athletics, the International Table Tennis Federation, etc.) and 48.3 billion yen to IOC-related organizations such the World Anti-Doping Agency, the International Council of Arbitration of Sport, and the International Paralympic Committee (in 2019).

Canceling the Tokyo Olympics would mean that the IOC loses revenue in the form of “world broadcasting rights fees for the Tokyo Olympics” (D) and “top sponsor revenue applicable to the Tokyo Olympics” (F). 90% of this revenue is distributed to Olympic Committees, international sports federations, and sports-related organizations in various countries, and these organizations will lose their revenue as a result.  International sports federations will also lose valuable sources of income, especially for sports with relatively few athletes.

Why has the IOC continued moving forward on the assumption that the event will be held? It is because, as we have seen, the IOC has an enormous number of payment obligations and plans premised on the Olympics being held. The IOC can quickly fall into financial hardship if broadcasting rights fees and top sponsors’ fees are not secured. (This may not be the case if insurance is taken into account, but we will come back to this later.) It is not clear how well each recipient of IOC payments can tolerate the loss of income due to the cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics. Here, let us assume that if Japan compensates for the full amount, no group will have a reason to complain, and all will accept the cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics.

2-5. Maximum Compensation Payable to the IOC for Tokyo Olympics Cancellation

The Tokyo Olympics can be canceled if Japan agrees to pay an amount equivalent to the IOC’s entire estimated revenue for the Tokyo Olympics. If Japan offers to pay a total of 439.4 billion yen (G), consisting of world broadcasting rights fees (352.5 billion) (D) and top sponsor revenue applicable to the Tokyo Olympics (86.9 billion yen) (F), it is inconceivable that the IOC will refuse.

However, the IOC will never take the initiative in presenting this proposal. What would happen if the IOC suggested that it would be fine to cancel the Tokyo Olympics if Japan pays 439.4 billion yen? Without a doubt, the IOC would be widely criticized, all over the world and within Japan, for being money-obsessed and making unilateral top-down proposals.

Also, considering that the national and Tokyo Metropolitan governments and Organizing Committees have already made massive investments in venue construction and administrative costs, and the cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics will further incur an enormous amount of compensatory damages, neither the Japanese government nor the IOC are likely to present this option to the people of Japan. After all, when the government pays these costs, it is the taxpayers who bear the burden.

Under these circumstances, the Tokyo Olympics can only be stopped if taxpayers themselves make this proposal, and state that we are willing to have our taxes cover the cost.

2-6. Maximum Compensation Payable for Tokyo Olympics Cancellation (Including Non-IOC Recipients)

Now, let’s take a closer look at the total cost of canceling the Tokyo Olympics. The IOC is not the only entity for which compensation must be considered.

2-6-1. The IOC

As mentioned in Part 2-5, it should be possible to persuade the IOC if Japan pledges to pay 439.4 billion yen (G). NBC Universal will have to cause to complain, because the IOC can pay NBC Universal out of that amount, which also covers compensation for top sponsors.

2-6-2. Japanese Sponsors

If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled, Japan may be obligated to refund fees not only to top sponsors contracted by the IOC, but also to Japan  partner companies recruited by the JOC and the Tokyo Olympics Organizing Committee. Thus far, 68 companies have participated as domestic sponsors and have entered into contracts worth a total of 392 billion yen (H).  The maximum amount, we will assume that the total amount of 392 billion yen (H) is to be repaid to domestic sponsors.

2-6-3. Licensing

Another factor to be considered is compensatory damages paid to licensed companies that design, manufacture, and sell products with the Olympic logo or mascot characters, etc. This amount is not expected to exceed 10 billion yen (I).

2-6-4. Local Sponsors in Other Countries

If individual countries’ Olympic Committees have domestic sponsors for the Tokyo Olympics. Olympic Committees may also incure damage. It is estimated that the total amount will not exceed 50 billion yen (J).

2-6-5. Maximum Total Compensation Amount: 891.4 Billion Yen

The total of (G) through (J) is: 439.4 billion yen (G) + 392 billion yen (H) +10 billion yen (I) + 50 billion yen (J) = a maximum total compensation amount of 891.4 billion yen (K).

2-6-7. Actual Compensation Amount

The maximum amount, when factoring in all recipient organizations and companies is 891.4 billion yen (K), but it is expected in reality to be even lower. First of all, there is sure to be insurance coverage. Both the IOC and NBC Universal are reportedly insured (even if not in full) for the event of cancellation. We can also predict that neither top sponsors nor Japanese domestic sponsors will ask for full repayment, as doing so might damage their brand image. Therefore, the total compensation amount may in fact be less than half of (K). There is a very high possibility that the compensation amount will be lower than (K), but as this is still the realm of possibility, the maximum value will continue to be applied for the purposes of this discussion.

3. Can We Afford It?

Can Japan afford to pay 891.4 billion yen (K)? And should we? It is a huge amount, but let’s look at it in the context of Japan’s national budget. Japan's annual national budget is 106.6 trillion yen. The reserve fund for COVID-19 countermeasures alone comes to five trillion yen. 891.4 billion yen (K) is the equivalent of 0.8% of the national budget, and can easily be paid out of the COVID-19 reserve fund. The state of emergency currently in effect in much of Japan has been extended into June. States of emergency and preventive measures may remain in effect until the opening of the Olympics. According to figures released by a private-sector research institute, the resulting economic losses will be approximately 10 trillion yen.

And if the Tokyo Olympics, expected to bring nearly 100,000 people to Japan from all over the world, further exacerbates the pandemic and introduces new variants to Japan, the impact on the economy will make 10 trillion yen look like peanuts.

We believe that the Tokyo Olympics should not be held this year, even if it means spending 891.4 billion yen (K) of taxpayer money. It is a huge amount, but not compared to losing trillions of yen. Above all, it is a small price to pay to prevent the spread of infection and the introduction of further variants. If the government is incapable, let us as taxpayers approve the Budget for Cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, agreeing to spending up to 891.4 billion yen. 

4. Why the Tokyo Olympics Should Not Be Held This Year: Japan’s Immunity Rate is Among the World’s Lowest

The number one reason the Olympics should not be canceled this year: Japan’s vaccine rollout has barely gotten underway.

It has been a full year since the government first decided to postpone the Olympics, originally scheduled for 2020, for one year. What in God’s name has the government been doing? Despite having a great reason for requesting priority in vaccine purchasing, one that anyone would accept – “we are going to host the Olympics next year” – Japan has the lowest vaccination rate among developed countries, and is on a par with developing countries in Africa. There has been a whole year to deal with issues like vaccination sites and personnel, but things are still in a state of chaos. Japan has one of the world’s lowest vaccination rates and one of the world’s lowest percentages of already infected persons, meaning our immunity rate is among the world’s lowest, but we are about to have nearly 100,000 people arrive from more than 200 countries. No one can deny the risk of infections spreading.

It has been reported that alcoholic beverages will be permitted at the Olympic Village, but how can the public accept the idea of people talking and laughing over drinks there, when we are not even permitted to go out for a beer under the current regulations? And the distribution of condoms is impossible to understand. In any case, the strict rules for athletes will not apply to the approximately 80,000 staff and journalists.

When tens of thousands of journalists and media personnel come to Japan, is it likely that the authorities will monitor them all, potentially violating freedom of the press as well as freedom of movement? Does anyone believe that the journalists and others visiting Japan will not eat or drink anywhere besides hotel restaurants and room service, or boxed lunches and catering at venues?

Most athletes will no doubt stay in their bubbles, as they might face the penalty of disqualification. However, there are approximately 80,000 other related persons who cannot be deprived of their “freedom of movement” and will not face penalties. (Regulations state that members of the press may be stripped of their qualifications, but it seems highly doubtful that this will happen.)

Holding the Olympics “in a bubble” means keeping all athletes and related individuals within this bubble, but the bubble is only effective when all these people are contained inside the Olympic Village and the venues. It is already clear that the Tokyo Olympics “bubble” is full of holes, and a completely effective bubble at the Tokyo Olympics is obviously impossible.

Also, people tend to forget that some national teams will not head directly to the Olympic Village on arrival, but will stay beforehand in host towns where they have contracts to hold training camps. A whopping 528 municipal governments nationwide have agreed to be host towns. A growing number of municipalities have announced that they are pulling out of these agreements, but there still many more prepared to go through with them. 

They are called the Tokyo Olympics, but they are really the “Japan Olympics.”

Some may say that there is no need for concern because vaccinations are proceeding. But this month there were eight cases among the New York Yankees, all of whom have been vaccinated. It is naïve to think that vaccination removes all need for concern. Vaccination drastically reduces infection rates, but they will never reach zero. And with large numbers of people clustering at the Olympic Village, infections are sure to occur.

The biggest problem of all is the risk of variants from all over the world (including ones that have not yet been discovered) gathering in Tokyo. Not all athletes will be vaccinated, and even vaccinated people may arrive in Japan carrying the virus.

For all the above reasons, we believe that the Tokyo Olympics should be canceled this year.

5. Cancel or Postpone?

The main goal here is to prevent the Olympics from being held this year.

We post a detailed discussion on note article.

6. In Closing

Here we have clarified the strategy for stopping the Tokyo Olympics and the cost of cancellation, which is up to 891.4 billion yen. If we can unite behind this cause rapidly, we can prevent the Tokyo Olympics from being held this year. Here time is the primary obstacle. This movement lacks street demonstrations, conferences, and a central organizing committee. It is an “ultra-short-term consensus-building” movement only possible in the age of the Internet.

“We” may usually be a silent majority, but this time we can make our voices heard. “We” embody and deliver a majority opinion that “you,” who are planning to move ahead with the Olympics no matter what, cannot ignore.

In closing, we would like to pay my respects to the Olympic Bid Committee, the Organizing Committee, related private-sector companies, individuals, and all those who have put enormous amounts of effort, thought, discussion, cooperation, and long days of work toward making the Olympics a success. Above all, we would like to express our utmost respect and apologies to all the athletes who are planning to participate in the Olympics. Thinking of the disappointment and regret that would result from cancelation of the Olympics makes me hesitate to publish this document. We have not forgotten the sadness athletes felt during the boycott of the Moscow Olympics.

We should immediately halt the Tokyo Olympics this year, and devote our energy to combating COVID-19, advancing vaccinations, and boost the economy. By allocating only 0.8% of the national budget, we can prevent a national catastrophe before it occurs. Japan is not currently capable of hosting the Olympics, and we cannot take the risk of doing so.

We firmly believe it is wrong to hold the Tokyo Olympics this year. We stand in opposition to holding the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.