I WOULD BE PLEASED TO HEAR / READ / SEE THAT THE ACTIONS OF NATURE BREACHED KIRKPATRICK (RODMAN) DAM! Sometimes I think that the State of Florida is actually wishing that this would happen. Whatever negative -- if any -- impacts that would happen to the St. Johns River would be the result of an extreme weather (flooding rain) event that could not be prevented by the best of FDEP engineers and managers. Rodman Dam would never be repaired or rebuilt after a natural breaching since the Ocklawaha River has been slated for restoration. There would be ample WARNINGS from FDEP to the public so very few, if any, people of common sense would be anywhere near Rodman Dam with a pool stage of more than 23 feet above sea level.
SIMPLY PUT, if the Kirkpatrick dam's four floodgates WIDE OPEN were unable to release at least as much -- if not more -- water downstream below the dam than is entering the reservoir from all of its sources upstream of the dam, then Lake Ocklawaha (Rodman Reservoir) would be in danger of rising too close -- its stage -- to the top of the 28-foot elevation earthen part of the dam (the roadway that you drive over) causing a breach somewhere in this structure.
Since about 1980 I have intensely studied official documents and websites for information about the 7,200-foot Rodman Dam structure along with the USGS streamflow gages along the Ocklawaha River basin that display its stage (stream levels / elevations above sea level) at various points.
Rodman Dam was engineered by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to safely contain a maximum pool elevation of 23.2 feet above sea level (NGVD 1929) or within 5 feet of the top of its 28-foot elevation earthen dam structure. Any pool stage higher than 23.2 feet above sea level (NGVD 1929) could theoretically cause fissures to develop in the earthen portion of the 7,200 foot-long dam and possible failure to occur.
Since the dam was filled across the Ocklawaha River on 30 September 1968 the highest elevation of the pool that was ever recorded was 21.2 feet in 2004 as a result of the hurricanes, Frances and Jean. After Hurricane Irma in 2017 the managers had learned their lesson from 2004 and released enough water quickly enough so that the stage never exceeded 20.37 feet NGVD.
Rodman (Kirkpatrick) Dam survived intact those 2004 and 2017 FIFTY-YEAR flood events.
In 2004 after Francis and Jean the Eureka CR-316 Bridge USGS gage recorded a maximum of 25.61 feet above sea level while in 2017 after Irma the Eureka CR-316 Bridge USGS gage recorded a maximum of 26.60 feet NGVD -- this increase prompted the managers to release more water through the spillway which they don't like to do because it floods the public use facilities below the dam's tailrace.
MY INFORMED BUT AMATEUR OPINION IS THAT IN ORDER FOR NATURE TO BREACH KIRKPATRICK DAM WE WOULD NEED A 100-YEAR FLOOD EVENT LIKE THE RAIN THAT TEXAS AND LOUISIANA HAVE HAD IN RECENT YEARS. Maybe steady heavy summer rains PLUS back-to-back tropical storms or hurricanes that flood vast sections of the Ocklawaha River basin above (upstream) from Rodman Dam -- Orlando to Leesburg to Ocala to Gainesville. My best guess is that a previously unreached stage of 28 to 30 feet above sea level at the Eureka CR-316 USGS gage would send enough water to Kirkpatrick Dam that the spillway floodgates couldn't compensate for -- raising the pool elevation to 24 feet or so thus causing damaging fissures to possibly develop in the earthen dam and failure to occur.
"Ocklawahaman" Paul Nosca
When you join with "FREE THE OCKLAWAHA RIVER BY THE BREACHING OF RODMAN DAM" in our quest to advocate for the restoration of the 56-mile length Ocklawaha River-Silver River system to free-flowing again -- Silver Springs to the St. Johns River estuary -- by signing the online petition FOR-FREE $$$, it costs you NO $$$!
Most sincerely, "Ocklawahaman" Paul Nosca, the original creator of the "FREE THE OCKLAWAHA RIVER BY THE BREACHING OF RODMAN DAM" online petition.
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