We will know the Scottish Government Reporter’s decision on the CCWEL in March. If it’s in favour, the Council will be starting work in May. There is a small chance he will reject the Council plans.
We put up a good show at the hearing in November; we were fortunate in having the Murrayfield Community Council (MCC) speaking out against, along with George from Art et Facts and John, our retired SEPA man. John presented his paper on Roseburn Air Pollution Modelling which comprehensively slates the Council study and gives an assessment of how removing parking on Roseburn Terrace would lead to an increase in NO2 levels.
The Reporter was very interested in our points but the Council kept presenting new information. Most significant was its estimate as to how many cycle journeys there were at present along West Coates. They monitored it on 24th Oct and claimed 797. This is for those travelling both East and West, so if one journey is for going to work, the other is for coming home; this equates to about 400 cyclists. Our study two years previously had indicated just 277. The difference was significant, so the Reporter agreed we could carry out our own count. This was duly organised through the MCC, whose Secretary organised volunteers to work in shifts. On the 12th Nov, we counted 596 journeys- about 300 cyclists. The Council panicked and then re-did its own survey, this time counting every day over a week. Its weekday average came out at 575, which is pretty much the same as ours. The Council re-count with 200 fewer journeys over the space of a fortnight is not conducive to building trust or confidence in its claims.
We also counted the number of cyclists travelling solely along Roseburn Terrace on the 18th Nov and found 420, which equates to 210 cyclists. The discrepancy indicates around 88 cyclists every day come along the Roseburn Path (the old Caledonian railway) and Wester Coates Road, at which point they join the A8. So there are 42% more cyclists on the West Coates stretch than the Roseburn stretch.
But the main argument the Council have put forward in favour of the CCWEL is the number of new cycle journeys it would bring about. I challenged their 2014 estimate of an 88% increase, because as you will recall we carried out our own Why Bike? Survey in 2016 of over 1,000 people, which found just 69 who said it would get them onto two wheels.
The Council told the reporter it had estimated future demand by using a matrix of zones. They broke the city down to 14 zones and used the 2011 census data to consider how people travelled between zones to get to work. They knew how many cycled from this zone to that zone every day versus how many drove or took the bus. They then estimated how many would begin cycling if the CCWEL was built. Their figures indicated 759 new cycle journeys every day. I examined their “CCWEL Cycle Use Forecasting” in some detail and thought the most they’d get would be 534.
But the problem remains that this is the number in an ideal world that will switch to two wheels. Just because you have a 4-mile journey to work and the CCWEL gives you a protected path for one-sixth of it does not mean you’ll become a cyclist. I believe that we will therefore only see a fraction of this number changing behaviour because of the CCWEL; if we are being optimistic, maybe one third - or 180 people.
We’ve pointed out that to spend £2.9M to get possibly 180 people onto bicycles between Roseburn and Haymarket, by reducing the width of the A8, along with the business impact, congestion and increased pollution this will cause, is not a proven business case. The fact is that there are numerous blackspots for cyclists across the city and the condition of cycle lanes everywhere is atrocious. The Council would be better served sticking with the NCR1 and using the money to improve cycling everywhere in the city, rather than focussing on the one km stretch to Haymarket.
We’ll just have to wait and see if the Reporter agrees; I’ll let you know what he decides.
Best wishes
Pete Gregson