Can referendum achieve Yorubexit? Baasegun @ IlanaUK Clubhouse 12.05.22
Referendum means a general vote of the electorate on a single political issue. In other words, a question is put to the general public for their answer. But, a referendum is necessary only when the answer is not known with certainty. The Igboho rallies clearly told us and the world that the Yoruba want their independence. The Ominira petition is in essence a referendum built on the strength of those rallies. The Ominira petition fulfils all the criteria for a referendum. It asks the Yoruba public to use their signature to vote on the question of independence for Yorubaland. There is no law that says only governments can conduct a referendum.
So, why conduct this referendum to ask for another referendum? It may be because the organisers of the Ominira petition instinctively knew that Nigeria would not honour the results of a referendum if conducted by the Yoruba themselves. The governors of the 12 Arewa States did not conduct a referendum before they introduced Sharia law into their states. Why? Because they knew that the Nigeria government did not have the balls to stop them. By contrast, the Nigeria government knows that in the case of the Yoruba, their leaders have no balls to do anything.
Indeed, Yoruba elites and media people sell the idea of a referendum to our people from a position of weakness. According to them, there is no way that the Yoruba could exit from Nigeria other than through a referendum conducted by others. So they beg Nigeria and the UN for a referendum.
Some even give the Brexit referendum as example of a successful outcome. They claim that the Brexit referendum got the UK out of Europe. That is simply not true. It was the British parliament that made Brexit happen, not the referendum. The Brexit referendum was challenged in court. The court ruled that the referendum was only advice; it was not legally binding.
The Yoruba elites and media people pushing referendum have really never thought it through. They have not thoroughly analysed the potential problems before pushing their referendum agenda.
Problem 1: Which Yoruba people are you going to ask? Are you going to ask only those living in Yorubaland? What about Yoruba people living in eastern and northern Nigeria? What about Yoruba people who are in refugee camps in the Benin Republic and elsewhere? What about the Yoruba people who have fled or are fleeing Nigeria to seek asylum abroad because of Nigeria’s troubles? What about Yoruba people in the Diaspora?
Problem 2: Can you honestly conduct a referendum in the current atmosphere of insecurity and intimidation in Nigeria? Fulani terrorists are rampaging through the forests in Yorubaland kidnapping people, killing, maiming, raping women and any females, destroying farmlands and villages, ethnic cleansing. These Fulani savages are proxies of Buhari’s Fulani people. The Nigeria army arms and protects them. And Buhari’s government has decreed that no one but the Fulani terrorists should carry arms in Nigeria.
Problem 3; who would conduct the referendum?
The Yoruba governors could do conduct a referendum but they are cowards. They are our weakest link. Also, they do not see a referendum to be in their own interest.
Nigeria is a failed state. Why would those who caused the failure, and those who benefit from the failure, conduct a referendum to end their benefits? They will not. A mouse will not vote for the mouse trap.
Census is a prerequisite for a referendum. A census is the basis for the voter registration process. No valid census has ever been conducted in Nigeria. The 1952/3 census was the first fact-finding exercise. The results deliberately overcounted the population in the north and undercounted the population in the south. The 1962 census, the first post-independence census, was reasonably well organised. The provisional figure of 45.1 million revealed that the south combined had a higher population than the north. The federal government first withdrew the results and then rejigged the results. Nigeria’s population ever since has been estimates based on those manipulated 1963 figures. Results from the 1973 census never saw the light of day. Results of the 1991 census which put the population at 89 million was rejected as an undercount. The 2006 census did not ask questions about religion or ethnicity. In other words, Nigeria’s census numbers are not credible. You cannot have a credible referendum if your census figures are not credible.
The UN cannot just come in and conduct a referendum. Who would invite them? There is no avenue available for the Yoruba themselves to invite the UN to conduct a referendum. Nigeria is a member state of the UN; an international club. This means that the UN general assembly would never vote for a referendum that could potentially split Nigeria, a member of their club. The security council would not allow it. A permanent member such as the UK or US would veto any referendum resolution.
Even if the Yoruba could persuade the UN to conduct a referendum, it would take years to organise. The Spanish or Western Sahara is the last major territory on the UN’s list of non-decolonisation territories. Morocco claimed sovereignty. The people declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic and started an armed conflict to achieve their independence. The UN intervened to stop the war. In 1991, the UN approved and established a mission for referendum as part of a settlement plan. The UN has about 300 military personnel in the territory yet, it has not been able to conduct the referendum in 30 years. Morocco prevented the referendum by virtue of being a member of the UN. France, a friend of Morocco, prevented the referendum because France has a permanent seat on the Security Council.
Problem 4: Who would enforce the result of the referendum?
Suppose you restricted the referendum to Yorubaland, suppose the Yoruba people there voted for independence, how would you enforce it? Who would enforce it? UN? AU? UK? USA? And, exactly how would they enforce the results of the referendum?
What would the Yoruba do if Nigeria refused to accept the results? Catalonia is one of Spain’s wealthiest region. It had all the trappings of a state except for independence. On 1 October, 2017, the 7.5 million Catalonia people of Spain had a referendum. 70% voted for independence from Spain. Spain refused and threw all their leaders in jail. The Spanish Constitutional Court declared referendum to be a breach of the constitution. The Spanish government then imposed direct rule. Catalexit did not happen despite their referendum.
Conclusion: A referendum will not make Yorubexit happen. Anyone who says otherwise is misinformed.
As we see here, the referendum proposals require someone else, like Nigeria or the UN, to do the job for the Yoruba. The court case is different. With that court case, we put our destiny in our own hands. We set out to prove that the 1999 constitution is a fraud. Constitution makes a country. If the constitution is a fraud, then the country also is a fraud. If the Ado Ekiti and/or the Osogbo court determines that the 1999 constitution is a fraud, then Nigeria immediately stands dissolved; Nigeria automatically ceases to exist. Yorubexit becomes an immediate reality.
The implications of a positive result from this Ekiti/Osun court case are huge.
1. As Nigeria would no longer exist as a country, the government would have no power to do anything. Any attempt by the army of the defunct Nigeria to take over in a coup would be legally rebuffed. The Yoruba homeland could legitimately set up its own army, airforce and navy. The Yoruba homeland could legitimately set up its own border police.The Yoruba Diaspora could legally supply weapons and human resources to defend their homeland just like the Jews did for the State of Israel.
2. All the other ethnic nations that the British corralled into Nigeria in 1914 would be free too. They would have the same opportunities as the Yoruba Nation to defend their homeland. If the Fulani savages of the defunct Nigeria choose to fight, they would be fighting not just the Yoruba but the other ethnic nations too.
3. The UN, AU, ECOWAS, commonwealth etc would immediately remove Nigeria from their membership. Nigeria could not continue as member. The world will not conduct international relations with a country that its courts had declared to be non existent. International organisations, whether located internally or externally, will not continue to conduct business with Nigeria. International businesses will stop trading with Nigeria. The IMF and other financial institutions will stop granting loans to Nigeria.
4. Diplomatic relations would terminate. Within hours of the courts declaring the 1999 constitution a fraud, watch the UK, USA and EU shamelessly scramble for relevance. They would claim they have always been the friends of the Yoruba. Watch them scramble to anoint people as leaders of the ethnic nations.
Finally, some have expressed the fear that Fulani vagabonds have been sent to invade Yorubaland, and that they would be difficult to dislodge. This is just fear mongering. When we have the Yoruba Nation we would ask all non Yoruba to return to their countries of origins to obtain travel documents and visas if they wished to return. All these Fulani will be forcibly deposited to the northern banks of River Niger, if they refused to leave voluntarily.