https://johnmenadue.com/the-fate-of-us-allies-hangs-in-the-balance-under-trump-2-0/

IPAN works to Chart our own Course: Next Steps towards and Independent Peaceful Australia https://ipan.org.au/category/resource/peoples-inquiry/

While nothing is certain, the US under Trump 2.0 may well deprioritise the South China Sea to cut a deal with China – if Beijing offers him strong economic incentives and some face-saving solutions not to let the war over critical technology get out of control, for example. There is a possibility of a trade-off: limiting US military presence in exchange for trade deals.

Trump is also likely to be upset with the countries in South-East Asia that join BRICS, as Indonesia just did earlier this month. He has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICs countries that replace the US dollar as reserve currency. Malaysia and Thailand have also sought membership of BRICs.

Trump is also frustrated with ASEAN member states cozying up to China whether through the Belt and Road initiatives, security deals or diplomatic alignments with BRICs; for example. Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos are already deeply tied with China. Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia are moving closer to Beijing to promote their national interests.

ASEAN’s resistance to taking sides in the China-US rivalry is likely to frustrate Trump. Nonetheless, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore have longstanding US ties that they want to preserve, if not elevate.

Call it strategic ambiguity or a hedging option. They will probably find ways to play both sides!