https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-ssn-a-flawed-plan-heading-for-the-wrong-destination/

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The AUKUS agreement aims to increase US, UK and Australian submarine capability in the Indo Pacific and the deterrence impact they offer. The current plan will fail for four fundamental reasons.

Between now and 2032 the US Navy will drop from 49 nuclear powered attack submarines (SSN) to 32-35; the US will not have sufficient SSNs to be able to sell Australia 3-5 Virginia Class submarines;
The concept mixes two versions of the Virginia class SSN with a third, new UK design. This is unworkable logistically and impractical for Australia.
A force of eight SSNs is below critical mass for generating the experienced personnel needed to oversee its operation and inadequate for Australia’s three-ocean needs (Pacific, Indian and Antarctic Oceans).
Australia will find it too expensive in manpower and funds to operate eight large SSNs, let alone the minimum force of 12 SSNs required for a sustainable force able to provide up to four deployable SSNs.
There is a solution, but it will require hard decisions from the three AUKUS partners. Let me elaborate on why the plan is flawed; first the US’s SSN numbers.

Read on: https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-ssn-a-flawed-plan-heading-for-the-wrong-destination/