Julie HareEducation editor
May 28, 2024 
 
Australia’s new mega university will have its ambitions to recruit 13,000 new students over eight years crimped as a result of competing government and opposition plans to harshly cut migration.

Adelaide University, a merger of the University of Adelaide and University of South Australia, is expected to enrol its first student intake in 2026.

The new merged Adelaide University will be reliant on growing numbers of international students, says David Lloyd.

But its business model and bid to climb up global university rankings are partly dependent on international student growth, which is under threat as Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton go head-to-head on who can make the harshest cuts to migration.

UniSA vice chancellor David Lloyd says the new university, which got its tick from the national higher education regulator on Tuesday, has modelled 3 per cent growth in international student numbers each year after its inception.

“Education is the No. 1 export sector for the state. It’s bigger than wine,” Professor Lloyd said.

“So we need to figure out how to protect the sector and grow it sustainably. And that’s the same for NSW, Victoria and Queensland.”

South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskus said last year the merged institution would attract an additional 13,000 students within eight years of its formation.

The new university is expected to leap into the top 100 of global rankings due to its combined resources, especially in research. The higher league table positions were expected to attract more international students, which would deliver more revenue that could be invested in more research.

Adelaide is ranked 89th on the QS ranking and UniSA 326th. On the Times Higher Education ranking Adelaide is 111th, while UniSA is in the 301-350 bracket.

International students make up half of all temporary migrants in Australia each year. Education is the largest export sector for both SA and Victoria and significant in NSW and Queensland.

The federal government has promised to halve net migration to 260,000 next financial year and bring it down to just 235,000 in three years.

 
Meanwhile, Mr Dutton has said he wants net overseas migration to come down to 160,000 in 2024-25 – which could reduce the new student intake to lows not seen since 2006.

However, Professor Lloyd said he did not imagine the government, which has said it will cap overseas student numbers at an institutional and course level, would want growth higher than 3 per cent.

“So our business model is not going to fall over in terms of the ability to grow at what we’ve been expecting to,” Professor Lloyd said.

“The bigger challenge would be legislation that allows for ministerial intervention, whether it’s warranted or wanted.

“And there is certainly a furphy around whether international higher education students are driving migration challenge for Australia.”

The two South Australian universities attracted a combined 14,165 international students in 2022, which represented 21.4 per cent of the student cohort. The universities of Sydney and Melbourne draw 46 per cent of their enrolments from overseas.

Mr Malinauskus has stressed the importance of international students to the merged university, visiting China last year to promote the state to the largest source country of overseas students to Australia.

The merged university will cost $450 million to create, including $30 million to attract new international students.

Professor Lloyd said international students attracted more than $40 billion in export income to the national economy each year, and he was concerned about the messages that were being sent to the market.

A survey of 11,500 prospective, applied and current students by recruitment firm IDP Education found that there has been a sharp increase in the popularity of the US as news of more restrictive policies in Australia, as well as in Canada and in the UK, have started to influence decisions.

At the same time, news of rising visa rejection rates and stricter rules for applicants had pushed arrivals to a 10-year low in March, and departures to a five-year high.

Professor Lloyd said the spread of international students was not uniform, with the six or so top-recruiting universities with about 30,000 each and the other 33 having around 6000 or less each.

He said state premiers would be justifiably concerned about policies that would diminish such a successful export agency.

“What will states think about diminished revenue, diminished employment and research capacity, less tourism? It will close off a source of people who work in sectors with skill shortages,” he said.

“And then the opposition leader is saying he will not just cut student numbers but increase the number of hours they can work while here. It’s a recipe for disaster.

“It seems like a populist intervention made up on the fly.”

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/harsh-migration-cuts-will-crimp-new-mega-uni-s-ambitions-20240528-p5jha3