Exclusive polling commissioned by Compassion in Politics reveals that Labour’s pursuit of the Reform vote is a strategic as well as a moral mistake.
If Keir Starmer chose to lead with compassion, sincerity and care, rather than chasing Reform’s cruelty, the polling conducted by Survation shows that Labour could gain a net increase of up to 3.2 million votes at the next general election. On a similar turnout to last time, that could be enough to overturn Reform’s projected majority.
This finding comes at a critical moment. Labour’s response to the rise of Reform has been to harden its language and policy on migration, to frame human rights as obstacles, and to signal “toughness” at almost any cost. The assumption is that Labour must chase Reform voters in order to survive.
The polling suggests the opposite.
Where Labour’s potential gains lie
The largest gains available to Labour are not among Reform voters, but among voters who broadly share Labour’s historic values and are currently drifting away from the party. According to the polling, Labour could see a net gain of around 1.5 million voters from the Greens and 1.1 million from the Liberal Democrats if Keir Starmer were perceived as being more clearly guided by compassion.
Among those who currently expect to vote Labour, 50% say they would be more likely to do so if Starmer showed greater compassion. In addition, around 1.5 million voters say they would consider switching to Labour if he came across as more sincere.
This points to a substantial pool of support that Labour is not currently mobilising.
The progressive majority
Using voter segmentation developed by Survation in partnership with 38 Degrees, the polling shows that 54% of the electorate falls within what is described as the progressive majority.
This group is not politically uniform, nor is it confined to any one demographic. It includes “open hearted collectivists” and “cosmopolitan optimists”, but also “guarded localists” and “rooted traditionalists”.
The inclusion of rooted traditionalists is significant. It challenges the assumption that compassionate politics only appeals to liberal or metropolitan voters. Across the progressive majority as a whole, 44% say they would be more likely to vote Labour if the party backed more compassionate policies. Only 11% say they would be less likely to do so.
Values, decisions and trust
The polling also highlights the importance of consistency between values and political decisions.
Labour’s handling of the two-child benefit cap is one example. A policy closely associated with rising child poverty was initially defended, with MPs disciplined for opposing it, before the party eventually shifted position under pressure. For many voters, this reinforced doubts about whether Labour could be relied upon to act in line with its stated principles.
Similar concerns have arisen in relation to Gaza, protest, climate policy and, most recently, proposals to limit jury trials. In each case, Labour’s position has appeared reactive, shaped by perceived political risk rather than anchored in a clear set of values.
What the polling indicates
Reform’s success does not rest on detailed or coherent policy proposals. It benefits from a political environment in which trust is low and voters feel unrepresented. When Labour adopts language associated with fear or exclusion, or appears uncertain about its own moral position, it risks reinforcing that environment rather than countering it.
The polling suggests there is an alternative. A clearer and more consistent commitment to compassion would align with Labour’s historic values and strengthen its electoral position.
At Compassion in Politics, our role is to commission this kind of research and ensure it informs public debate. We will be sharing this polling with a wide range of Labour stakeholders, advisers and parliamentarians, so that decisions about policy and strategy can be grounded in evidence about what voters actually think, rather than assumptions about where the electorate is heading.
As the year comes to an end, I want to be open with you about how difficult it is to sustain our work. At the moment we are operating with a tiny team of three part-time staff. Nobody else is doing what we’re doing, and we must keep going. We are making a national and global impact, but our team is stretched to bursting point.
If you are able to donate, your support will help us continue this work into the year ahead. And if you are already a donor, thank you! We do not take a single penny we receive for granted. And whether you can donate or not please share this polling and the article it is drawn from with others. Helping the evidence reach a wider audience genuinely makes a difference.
With warm wishes,
Jennifer
Jennifer Nadel
Co-founder and CEO
Compassion in Politics