Many of you may remember me talking about the Trojan Hedgehog … one of the reasons I love hedgehogs so much is the way they allow me to talk about BIGGER things in an unthreatening manner …
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Well, this one I have looked at closely, read around this news to find the light way in … and have to admit to completely failing.
When the UK Government recruits the Joint Intelligence Unit to review the evidence of expected impacts of global diversity loss and ecosystem collapse to national security, you might imagine if there was no fanfare there was nothing to worry about …
That is a unit on which sits the heads of MI5, MI6 and GCHQ … this is not a bunch of tree hugging eco-worriers …
And there was no fanfare because if this information was more widely understood it might well be cause for concern.
The document that has been produced is widely believed to have been heavily abridged - and it is believed that this was to remove some of the even more damning revelations - in particular the complete failure of the current government to do anything to remedy the problems.
So what does it tell us? These are the key judgements that have an ‘Analytical Confidence Rating’ of HIGH … which is defined by the authors as, “we have high confidence in our assessment of global ecosystem degradation trends, and in their biological and physical impacts. We have high confidence that every critical ecosystem is degrading. These trends are based on a large scientific evidence base that is often revised to give further detail on trends.”
Ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions. Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse (irreversible loss of function beyond repair).
Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity. The world is already experiencing impacts including crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. Threats will increase with degradation and intensify with collapse. Without major intervention to reverse the current trend, this is highly likely to continue to 2050 and beyond.
Critical ecosystems that support major global food production areas and impact global climate, water and weather cycles are the most important for UK national security. Severe degradation or collapse of these would highly likely result in water insecurity, severely reduced crop yields, a global reduction in arable land, fisheries collapse, changes to global weather patterns, release of trapped carbon exacerbating climate change, novel zoonotic diseases and loss of pharmaceutical resources. The Amazon rainforest, Congo rainforest, boreal forests, the Himalayas and South East Asia’s coral reefs and mangroves are particularly significant for the UK.
Even at a casual glance, this should sound alarming. The report goes on to clarify what it means.
Ecosystem degradation: a long term reduction in an ecosystem’s structure, functionality, or capacity to provide benefits to people.
Ecosystem collapse: refers to a critical threshold beyond which an ecosystem is potentially irreversibly changed and can no longer maintain essential structure or function.
Around 35 years ago I began to get involved in environmental campaigning - blocking the main road in front of parliament as part of a protest about tropical forest destruction, helping set up an Earth First! group in Manchester, heading to the Twyford Down protests over the destruction being caused by the extension of the M3 - then there was Solsbury Hill, and the Newbury bypass campaign.
I was never a fully committed, live-on-the-land superhero, but provided support mainly through media work. And for that I was often dismissed as an entirely naive youth with no realistic grasp on how the world works … well, I say youth, I was in my twenties so not that youth I suppose. Though back at school I did help set up a peace society and went to visit Greenham Common - and the women campaigning against the siting of nuclear weapons on UK soil.
The point is - we were often shouted down for suggesting that more care needed to be taken of the planet - being as it is our only one. And if we dared to extrapolate from the loss of hedgehog habitat, or chalk downland, or heavily protected woodlands - to the bigger picture of planetary boundaries being exceeded, we were laughed at … ‘capitalism will sort it all out’ was the sort of attitude we faced.
There is a three word phrase that I am loathed to use … in fact I note that George Monbiot had a similar concern in his recent Guardian column - but … ‘told you so’!!!
Towards the end of this frankly terrifying document there is a list of national security risks from ecosystem collapse … and remember, this is a list that has come from serious people and not hyperbolic-hippies living in treehouses (not that there is anything wrong with living in a treehouse … I am more worried about the hyperbole!)
Migration will rise, serious and organised crime will increase as will threats from terrorists and pandemics. Political polarisation will grow where the food does not, geopolitical competition will increase alongside economic insecurity - conflict and military escalation will become more likely.
Please - read the document if you think I am making this up!
What to do? Well - I will continue snuffling my own path, I will bring the Trojan Hedgehog to every talk I give. I will remind audiences that while this might be about hedgehogs - about our love of this animal, and the ways we can help, it is also about the bigger picture - the biggest being that if we lose all hope, we lose.
Where can we find hope? Very surprisingly for me - I have found a source … the surge of energy that has erupted through the Green Party with the arrival of Zack Polanski on the scene is really making me think there is hope … as he says ‘Let’s make hope normal again.’
Wow - that was a heavy update - sorry … don’t forget to use the Substack version if you want to complain!!