Actualización de la peticiónSave the UK by forgetting BREXIT and Rejoining the EUWould post BREXIT Britain survive economically and socially?

Dr. Michael HopkinsLondon, ENG, Reino Unido

1 jul 2017
From the Financial Times where a lively debate is going on. But few, if any, say how post-BREXIT Britain will survive. So I asked whether the tenor of the debate could be changed and look at Britain's future options. This is sorely needed since it does seem that the opinion of the masses depends on their past and current experience but not on the harder to imagine future. So, let me assume that Brexit succeeds and the UK is on its own. How will it survive its new position?
Remember it will have far less trade with the EU both in and out, imports will be more expensive as well exports since the average distance to their destination will increase and the key financial service sector will be badly hit. Remember too that the UK is a large country (pop 65.1mn) with declining natural resources unlike the so-called comparator countries such as Norway (huge social fund) and oil/gas resources (pop 5.1 million) or Switzerland (pop 8.1mn, one of largest immigrant population per capita in the world and allows free movement of labour in and out of Europe). Britain has a highly skilled population but so does Europe. And Germany does a better job of skill training - but as I mentioned before if Brexit is such a good deal why doesn't Germany leave the EU?.
So where will economic activity come from to support Corbyn's welfare (including Universal Basic Income) or the Tories new relaxed welfare programme?
Agriculture? No, needs unskilled labour - no more Poles etc. Maybe fairtrade food products? More expensive and not much export potential. But land area declining. Population aging.
Industry? Already moving out of UK unless the pound continues to decline and takes UK to a third world country wage standard? Robotics will be replacing even low skilled labour whatever. Can UK have the edge over the EU on that? Possibly but the third world low wage economies dont do too well on welfare...wanna live with Mugabe as President?
Services. Financial services will be badly hit but maybe an offshore paradise with low taxation? But doesnt the UK need taxes for its Corbyn welfare programme? Educational services? Dropped by 7% this year as EU students moved out and Britains' draconian anti-student laws have led to parallel educational institutions popping up all over the world especially China. Science? Might be the best hope but what and how applied?
I finished my comment by asking FT readers - tell me how wrong I am and the future is bright...what did I miss? I'll summarise the main thoughts in a future post as they come in.
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