Ask UK Covid Inquiry to Determine Most Suitable Lockdown Periods Using Most Precise Model
The Issue
Do you want to save more than 100,000 lives if we have a similar pandemic to covid in the future?
I am a non-linear time varying dynamics specialist. I have developed a model that very accurately predicts deaths and admissions over the entire UK covid pandemic cycle from the original Wuhan wave to the Eris and Pirola waves. I can use my model to run past scenarios in which the duration of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are changed to more effective ones and the impact of those changes can be determined. More than 100,000 lives could have been saved with very small changes in the duration the NPIs were applied. There is a very real danger that the "inquiry" will not investigate the duration of NPIs thoroughly.
Well timed NPIs is the correct response to a pandemic. The lockdowns did not work well because they were badly sequenced. Generally starting too late thus extending the length of lockdown required to bring infections under control and then finishing too early and not allowing infection to fall to manageable numbers. The effectiveness of well executed NPIs can be demonstrated by my model. There is an option for short circuit breaker lockdowns that could have been sequenced to coincide with school holidays for instance, minimising disruption, keeping infections low and reducing the overall time period spent in lockdown.
It is becoming increasingly evident that there is a link between the vaccine and excess deaths, so that is clearly not the best approach to be adopted.
I have written to the “inquiry” and they have not confirmed my model will be used. It is unlikely that they are planning to use my model as they have not asked me to provide evidence.
Please petition to get my model accepted, so that the effective use of NPIs can be investigated during the "inquiry". I have already simulated a number of scenarios with well sequenced NPIs and they have been shown to be effective.
Module 2 that is dealing with NPIs begins in October, so it is vital that support is given on an urgent basis
https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-alves-2202538
The Issue
Do you want to save more than 100,000 lives if we have a similar pandemic to covid in the future?
I am a non-linear time varying dynamics specialist. I have developed a model that very accurately predicts deaths and admissions over the entire UK covid pandemic cycle from the original Wuhan wave to the Eris and Pirola waves. I can use my model to run past scenarios in which the duration of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are changed to more effective ones and the impact of those changes can be determined. More than 100,000 lives could have been saved with very small changes in the duration the NPIs were applied. There is a very real danger that the "inquiry" will not investigate the duration of NPIs thoroughly.
Well timed NPIs is the correct response to a pandemic. The lockdowns did not work well because they were badly sequenced. Generally starting too late thus extending the length of lockdown required to bring infections under control and then finishing too early and not allowing infection to fall to manageable numbers. The effectiveness of well executed NPIs can be demonstrated by my model. There is an option for short circuit breaker lockdowns that could have been sequenced to coincide with school holidays for instance, minimising disruption, keeping infections low and reducing the overall time period spent in lockdown.
It is becoming increasingly evident that there is a link between the vaccine and excess deaths, so that is clearly not the best approach to be adopted.
I have written to the “inquiry” and they have not confirmed my model will be used. It is unlikely that they are planning to use my model as they have not asked me to provide evidence.
Please petition to get my model accepted, so that the effective use of NPIs can be investigated during the "inquiry". I have already simulated a number of scenarios with well sequenced NPIs and they have been shown to be effective.
Module 2 that is dealing with NPIs begins in October, so it is vital that support is given on an urgent basis
https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-alves-2202538
The Decision Makers
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Petition created on 29 September 2023