Today, the CDC published this "early release" post: Projected Zika Virus Importation and Subsequent Ongoing Transmission after Travel to the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games — Country-Specific Assessment: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/wr/mm6528e1.htm?s_cid=mm6528e1_w#Bb_down It partially agrees with the 238 scientists and researchers that signed the letter Rio Olympic Later: http://rioolympicslater.org and states: "The remaining four countries, Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Yemen, are unique in that they do not have a substantial number of travelers to any country with local Zika virus transmission, except for anticipated travel to the Games." But when I read over the CDC's model based on “worst-case scenarios,” I was appalled that they are still hanging their hat on the following: First, the CDC assumed that Zika transmission would be ongoing during the winter months of August and September in Rio de Janeiro. Historically, winter months are low season for mosquito-borne disease transmission in Rio de Janeiro. FACT: It will not be "winter in Rio = no mosquitoes" as you've been led to believe. The "temperatures will likely run in the middle 80s to near 90 F (29 to 32 C) throughout the Olympic Games." FACT: Water temperatures that are ideal for breeding Aedes mosquitoes is 80 F (27 C) give or take a few degrees. Since water is generally a few degrees cooler than air, Rio will have the perfect conditions for breeding the main type of Zika-carrying mosquito. And the second, third, fourth, and fifth "worst-case scenarios" clearly state "all visitors" in this CDC assessment. The glaring problems are: 1) Travel data set comprised modeled estimates of passenger-journeys from 2015, not actual counts of travelers, and aviation travel data might have changed in 2016. [Got that? The CDC is not using "actual counts of travelers" to come up with their assessment. Instead of 1/2 million visitors, they could be using 100 visitors, for example.] 2) Delegation sizes were estimated using a simple formula based on the projected numbers of athletes. [Again, the athletes, not the 1/2 million expected visitors.] 3) Analyses were completed considering only the primary Zika virus vector, Ae. Aegypti, and not Ae. Albopictus, which is less commonly associated with transmission; however, this did not affect the results, because none of the countries where Ae. albopictus but not Ae. aegypti is present met all four risk criteria. [Clear as mud, right?] FACT: The conclusion (published March 3rd, 2016) in Differential Susceptibilities of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus [tiger mosquitoes] from the Americas to Zika Virus states: "This study suggests that although susceptible to infection, Ae. agypti and Ae. albopictus were unexpectedly low competent vectors for ZIKV [aka Zika]. This may suggest that other factors such as the large naïve population for ZIKV and the high densities of human-biting mosquitoes contribute to the rapid spread of ZIKV during the current outbreak." 5) Finally, the analysis does not estimate actual risk, which would be expected to be related to travel volume (and therefore low for countries with low travel volume), but instead estimates proportionate changes in risk that could occur because of travel during the Games. [The CDC admits their analysis "does not estimate actual risk" – so shouldn't we just throw it out now?] FACT: CDC's own "worst-case scenario" is based on: 1) Winter temperatures in Rio (which won't be happening and are not applicable). 2) All visitors = athletes (not 1/2 million tourists). 3) Delegation sizes = projected numbers of athletes (unclear what that number is). 4) Only considered two Aedes mosquitoes and completely omitted the huge risk that Culex mosquitoes pose (which lives almost everywhere in the world, bites at night and requires different approaches to eradicate it). 5) CDC admits: "The analysis does not estimate actual risk." What about sexual spread? Well, the CDC seemed to gloss over that risk factor, in my opinion. The only two places it is mentioned states: 1) Measures should be taken to prevent sexual transmission and they point to another "box" for more info. 2) Travelers should prevent possible sexual transmission while at the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games and after returning home by correctly using condoms every time they have sex or by abstaining from sex. Males should use condoms for at least 8 weeks after travel or, if symptomatic for Zika virus infection, for 6 months from the start of symptoms. But the CDC admits, "we don't know exactly how long Zika stays in semen or how long it can be passed to sex partners." Furthermore, 80 percent of those infected have no symptoms. FACT: In a WBUR 90.9 post, Dr. Dean Blumberg explained, "So it's [Zika] been detected up to 62 days after infection, but that's where they stopped checking. So does that mean it's still viable 70 days, 80 days, three months, six months later?" Bottom Line: There is no way that the CDC can accurately and honestly state: "For 15 of these 19 countries, travel to Rio de Janeiro during the Games is not estimated to increase substantially the level of risk above that incurred by the usual aviation travel baseline for these countries." As such, I've added the ICC (International Criminal Court), Information and Evidence Unit, to the growing list of those being petitioned. In my mind, this amounts to a crime against humanity to not enact Level 3 travel warnings (and to allow 1/2 million visitors from all over the world to the heart of an unprecedented outbreak). I will echo to Health Canada and Dr. Jane Philpott the demands of Congressman Dr. Michael Burgess and Senator John Cornyn in this 3-page letter to the CDC: http://burgess.house.gov/uploadedfiles/cornyn_and_burgess_zika_letter_to_state_and_cdc_6.17.16.pdf 1) Explain why Zika-related travel risks is not on the 'Alerts and Warnings' page. 2) Explain why the CDC does not consider Zika an unprecedented threat to public health to warrant a Level 3 travel alert (avoid all non-essential travel). 3) Provide a detailed analysis why the CDC does not consider this virus as presenting a high risk of harm to the next generation of Americans. I have also penned "An Open Letter to Athletes and Sponsors of the 2016 Rio Summer Olympics" (which contains all the links to the facts I've cited in this update): http://roserightswrongs.blogspot.ca/2016/07/an-open-letter-to-athletes-and-sponsors.html Thank you for reading, signing, and sharing this petition. It's not too late. Sincerely, Rose CC Dr. Attaran Authors note: I cannot use italics or hyperlink. Ergo, links are not hidden. How your signature helps: each time a supporter signs a petition, an email is automatically sent directly to those being petitioned (governments, companies and individuals). When hundreds or even thousands of emails arrive in their inboxes, the message is impossible to ignore. Keep up-to-date: a new Facebook page devoted to keeping the public and athletes fully informed: https://www.facebook.com/StopZikaFirst