I would make a guess that the cost of electricity produced by Renewables should be charged at between $1,000 and $1,500 per MWh that may be an under estimate. If someone disagrees, I challenge them using the criteria (below) to come up with a figure.
How did I arrive at that astronomical figure read on.
The CSIRO produces a GenCost (Generating Cost) Report that claims that Renewables (Solar, Wind and Batteries) are the cheapest and cleanest way to generate electricity in Australia.
However, in my opinion the GenCost report is severely lacking in;
1. Not allowing for the fact that because Solar and Wind use weather fuels, each is only able generate: Solar (Sunshine) is only able to generate for a maximum of eight hours a day. (With sometimes much less). And for Wind because of calm periods (wind droughts) or gales. The industry has an average electricity production for Wind Turbines of 35% of their rated capacity. Therefor for 14 to 16 hours a day Renewables require to be backed up by coal, gas or nuclear. (Batteries are almost irrelevant as their backup can only be counted in minutes not hours,)
2. The GenCost report includes no costing for the dismantling and disposal costs of Renewables waste. (Solar panels, wind turbine blades, etc, etc).
3. The GenCost report makes no inclusion for the lost economic, agricultural production which runs into $billions with a multiplier affect on the expenditure in Regional Cities and Towns, with associated loss of tens of thousands of jobs.
In place of the GenCost Report, I have made an estimate of what I believe should be included and what the total cost might be.
When doing the costing the following has to be taken into account: With the costing including actual costs, plus a profit margin.
A. The costs of mining and refining the minerals to make the Renewables. (In many instances the mining may use child labour).
B. The cost of freighting the minerals to a place of production.
C. The production costs to make solar panels, wind turbines, inverters, batteries, transmission towers and cables, etc. (In some instances, slave labour is known to be used).
D. The cost of freighting the solar panels, wind turbines, inverters, batteries, transmission towers and cables, etc. to other Countries and then to the sites.
E. Clearing of sites, laying foundations, setting up sites, weekly and annual maintenance.
F. Daily production costs.
G. Backup cost. As solar has only a maximum of eight hours, of weather fuel available a day. And sometimes much less, a backup of coal, gas or nuclear has to be on standby for 24 hours every day.. Which is a duplicate system, but the cost, needs to be added to the production costs of solar factories. Wind turbines, because they can only produce electricity, when the wind speed is between 12kms/hr and 90kms/hr. The industry reports that Wind Turbines only produce electricity on average for only 35% of their rated capacity or on average for eight hours per day. Wind Turbines can be becalmed for days at a time, producing no electricity. Likewise, if a gale blows for several days no electricity is produced. Because of this intermittency, a backup of coal, gas or nuclear has to be on standby for 24 hours every day. Which is a duplicate system, but the cost, needs to be added to the production costs of wind factories.
H. Lost opportunity cost. Which means the lost economic value of agricultural production from the site The annual lost beef production has been calculated from the proposed Meadow Creek Solar Farm near Wangaratta at $8,750 per hectare. As the land will be polluted for the next 100 years and beyond, it is not out of reason to say that the lost, economic beef production over the 100 years would amount to $875,000 per hectare, (not allowing for inflation). This loss would have a multiplier affect on surrounding cities and towns, with a corresponding loss of large amount of employment.
I. Subsidy costs. Each Renewable Factory can claim Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGC’s currently each Certificate is worth $50 for each MWh produced, in addition to the price each MWh is sold for). Electricity retailers are forced to buy a certain percentage (currently 18.4%) of LGC’s of their total MWh’s purchased.
J. Transmission line costs. These costs should be borne by the Renewable Factory and added to the electricity production cost. They are estimated to be $20billion.
K. Decommissioning (Dismantling). As the Renewable Factory was built by the Factory owner, it is only right they should have to dismantle it. With the provision that it be done, so no contamination of the site or surface or underground water take place. Prior to construction it should be a requirement that a dismantling bond be put in place to make sure that this happens.
L. The cost of freighting the Renewables waste to a place of recycling or landfill.
M. Disposal of Renewable waste. Solar panels, batteries, inverters, Wind turbine blades, etc. This is going to be a very difficult and costly exercise. (The Victorian Government classes solar panels as e-Waste which cannot be disposed of in landfill). The cost will be a very large amount.
WHEN YOU CONSIDER 30% OF AUSTRALIA'S HOUSES HAVE SOLAR PANELS, COUPLED WITH THE RENEWABLES FACTORY WASTE THE DISPOSAL OF RENEWABLE WASTE IS GOING TO BE PROBLEM OF A HUGE MAGNITUDE.
HAS ENERGY MINISTER CHRIS BOWEN GIVEN IT ANY THOUGHT?
N. All these costs will be made with borrowed money, therefor it is only right that an allowance for a hefty interest cost should be made.
Then taking into account that Solar at best produces for only 33% of each day and sometimes not at all. And for Wind the industry average is to produce for between 31% and 35% each day. I believe the total cost per MWh should be allocated to solar and wind production. (To say it’s very cheap is I believe is very misleading).
I would make a guess that the cost of electricity produced by Renewables should be shown as between $1,000 and $1,500 per MWh that may be an under estimate. If someone disagrees, I challenge them using the above criteria to come up with a figure.
I WOULD SAY AT THIS COST, THE TRANSITION TO RENEWABLES MUST BE STOPPED NOW
All this again underlines how important (beginning with Liddell which closed in April 2023, Eraring in 2025, Yallourn in (2032 now 2028), Bayswater in 2033, with Loyang A in 2045). AND THAT NONE OF THESE COAL FIRED POWER STATIONS BE DEMOLISHED AFTER IT IS CLOSED, BUT BE MOTHBALLED, SO IT CAN BE RESTARTED IN THE EVENT, THAT A SHORTAGE OF ELECTRICAL GENERATION REQUIRES IT TO BE RESTARTED. Even if this requires the coal fired generators be compulsory acquired by the relevant Government, in the National interest.
May I strongly urge all business owners, large and small. CEO’s Managers, those in charge of aged care homes, and other public institutions, everyone in a position of management. Homeowners, etc. Reliable, low-cost power is essential. Blackouts are a diabolically, serious issue. Talk with your management, boards, staff about how it will affect your business.
The ACT Government claims that they are totally renewable energy powered. The ACT Government is deluding themselves and doesn’t realise how wrong they are. As all their electricity comes from the NSW Grid. It is more likely to be anywhere between 60% to 80% fossil fuels and only 20% to 30% unreliables, with the damage unreliables are doing to Rural Australia the whole project is a disaster.
Continue to promote our petition as widely as possible. https://www.change.org/p/blackouts-will-be-devastating-they-must-be-avoided-at-all-costs
Please donate $20 or $50 to keep our petition in the public eye. People are waking up. Promote the petition on Change.org and share it on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Whatsapp or Email.
KEEP INFORMED BY DAILY MONITORING THE AEMO DATA DASHBOARD. And alert your friends to watch the AEMO dashboard, the more know what's happening the better.
Particularly at 7pm and 7am (Or a time that suits you?) watch (and record) the mix of coal, gas hydro, batteries, solar and wind generation and the prices per MWh for each State on the AEMO dashboard.
STOP PRESS: South Australia 4th June 2024 9.05pm EST. Batteries 0%, Gas 97%, Diesel 3% Solar 0%, Wind 0%.
SA RENEWABLES CAPITAL OF AUSTRALIA WITH BATTERIES, SOLAR AND WIND PRODUCING NO ELECTRICITY, ZERO, NOTHING
We are up to 3,329 signatures, let’s increase it by many more, everyone’s future depends on it. Continue to spread the word, to all family, friends, anyone you meet, particularly discuss it with shop and business owners. Ask the question, “How do you plan to cope when the blackouts come? The possibility is too awful to contemplate.
WE MUST KEEP THOSE COAL FIRED GENERATORS GOING, TO KEEP OUR SOCIETY FROM HAVING BLACKOUTS, POWER RATIONING AND EXHORBITANT ENERGY PRICES.