We are residents of Arlington, Virginia, and we demand a total lockdown of the county and state now.

Many Arlington residents have chosen to ignore social distancing recommendations. Their actions will lead to the deaths of many, especially Arlingtonians who are elderly, have underlying health conditions, or work in the healthcare field.

As of March 25th, Arlington had 46 known COVID-19 cases. Since there is a severe shortage of testing, we know the real figure is many times higher. Is it 500 cases? 5,000 cases? We don't know, but we do know that the number of new cases increases by around 50% per day absent extreme measures (which we are not currently taking).

Arlington County should declare a shelter in place order immediately and demand the State of Virginia do so as well. Cities and counties around the country have declared such orders with fewer cases than we have now. The Arlington Police Department should enforce this order. In accordance with guidelines from infectious disease experts, residents should only be allowed to leave their homes for the following purposes:

• Buy food and other necessities
• Obtain medical care
• Exercise at a safe distance from others
• Perform jobs critical to the functioning of our county, state and country

Some argue Arlington doesn't have the legal authority to do this. I'm sure we have some smart lawyers who can justify a step that will save hundreds, maybe thousands of lives. Cities and states around the country are reevaluating their authorities to deal with this unprecedented crisis. Every hour counts and this isn't the time to drown ourselves in bureaucracy. 

More on why we need to act now:

Hospitals expect to be overloaded: One local hospital official described the coming crisis this way: “It feels like being on the shores of Phuket in 2004, like when the tide goes out, and you know the tsunami wave is coming — that’s what it’s sort of feeling like. We’re in very, very heavy surge preparation here."

When Arlington hospitals get overloaded, the Arlington COVID-19 death rate will skyrocket. 5% of Coronvirus patients need to be put on a ventilator to survive. When the tsunami hits, Arlington will likely run out of ventilators, and the Arlington COVID-19 death rate may shoot well above 5%. The death rate is above 7% in Italy. We probably cannot stop this from happening in Arlington. But at least we can reduce the scale of the crisis if we take action now.

A lockdown will save countless lives in Arlington:

According to pandemic expert Dr. Yaneer Bar-Yam, a five week lockdown would dramatically reduce our rate of COVID-19 infection:

• "During the first two weeks of a lockdown, infected individuals will either recover from mild cases of COVID-19 at home or seek medical attention for the 14% of cases that are severe. During the third, fourth and fifth weeks, any newly infected family or cohabitants of infected individuals will recover or seek medical attention, and their isolation will prevent further spreading. By the end of the lockdown, the number of infections will be a small fraction of what they are now."