*Do we want to End TB by 2025 or Spread TB by 2025?*
As per the latest Indian Public health standards published by the Ministry of Health and family welfare, *Respiratory medicine is not listed as an essential speciality at District hospitals and Subdistrict hospitals.*
Projected data on the surge in tuberculosis (TB) and drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) cases due to a lack of respiratory specialists at district and subdistrict hospitals can be inferred based on the following:
*1. Impact of Delayed Diagnosis*
Studies suggest that every undiagnosed TB patient can infect 10-15 others annually. Delayed diagnosis due to a lack of specialist care could increase the rate of transmission, especially in high-burden areas. *This could result in a 5-10% annual rise in TB cases, depending on local conditions.*
2. *Increased Drug Resistance*
Inadequate treatment or mismanagement, common when specialists are unavailable, is a key driver for the emergence of MDR-TB. *If treatment protocols are not adhered to, the proportion of drug-resistant TB cases could surge by 5-7% annually.*
MDR-TB cases currently constitute around 2-3% of new TB cases and 18-19% of previously treated cases. Without specialized care, these figures are likely to increase.
3. *Mortality and Morbidity Projections*
*If the quality of TB care diminishes, there could be a 5-7% increase in TB mortality annually*. The current TB-related mortality rate in India is around 3.2 lakh deaths per year, and this could rise significantly in areas without proper care infrastructure or respiratory specialists.
4. Regional Variations
States with the highest TB burden, such as *Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh,* where healthcare systems are weaker, would likely see the greatest surges. These states may experience *15-20% higher increases in TB and MDR-TB cases* compared to better-equipped regions.
5. *Healthcare System Projections*
The lack of pulmonologists means that the general health system could become increasingly overburdened, leading to a circular increase in case load and decreased efficiency in handling TB. *This may lead to a 50% or greater increase in healthcare costs related to TB management over the next decade*
While there aren't precise national-level projections tied directly to specialist shortages, the overall burden is expected to rise without significant interventions in healthcare staffing and infrastructure. Drug-resistant TB, in particular, poses a grave threat to TB elimination goals if not adequately managed.
*If you wish for a TB free India by 2025 and not a Spree of Tuberculosis in the coming years ,please support our cause and help in reinstatement of respiratory medicine in the MBBS curriculum as well as prevent its removal as an MD respiratory medicine course.*
Thank you for joining our cause and please share the petition again with the community for maximum impact.