The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports a world-wide 1˚C man-made temperature rise – mostly over the last 50 years. This may not sound much but allowing that our normal temperature range in the UK is 0˚C to 20˚C, a 1˚C rise in temperature equates to a 5% increase in temperatures over that time. And the problem is accelerating if you look at the charts. Our climate is hugely sensitive to even the smallest changes and is reacting to this rise in temperatures in all-too obvious ways.
The Paris Climate Accord on the face of it committed countries to limiting overall temperature increases to 1.5˚C by the end of the century. But the transformations required to achieve this are barely off the ground. In the UK, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) makes recommendations to the UK Government and reports on progress. In their last report they noted good progress in decarbonising power generation, but little to no progress in every other area - leaving a gaping hole in the UK commitment to so-called Net-Zero carbon target by 2050. The outputs are summarised below:
• Power generation emits 15% of UK emissions and >50% now comes from renewables – progress, good but 100% needs to be decarbonised.
• Buildings emit 17% of emissions but we still heat poorly insulated buildings predominantly with natural gas. A mass shift to well-insulated, high-efficiency buildings using heat pumps and heating networks is required - virtually no progress in the last 10 years
• Industry emits 21% of UK emissions, but hardly any progress has been made to deal with decarbonising the manufacturing or heating processes involved. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Hydrogen power are key developments in this sector – very poor progress to date.
• Transport represents 23% of emissions. Slow uptake of electric vehicles even compared to other countries and no meaningful hydrogen power for road freight – weak progress.
• Key enablers of these changes are the infrastructure upgrades and networks needed for CO2 storage, Hydrogen power and electricity distribution - hardly an impression yet. And these take decades to develop and deliver.
• Aviation and shipping represent 10% of emissions and are currently going up.
• Agriculture represents 9% of emissions, mainly through animal methane production, use of fertilisers and land management. Eating habits are changing slowly away from meat. But Agriculture and land should be capturing more carbon than it is releasing and afforestation rates (planting trees) are woefully behind. We are not even measuring the impact of peatland loss yet and methane – a very powerful greenhouse gas – is an area of considerable scientific uncertainty. Overall virtually no progress.
• Because we can’t close the gap to Zero without capturing more carbon back out of the atmosphere, we also need something called BECCS - biogass energy generation (essentially growing, then burning plants) and capturing the CO2 emitted through CCS – no progress.
There are a few more issues to consider. The CCC themselves make reference to ‘Consumption Emissions’ or the carbon cost of imported materials. All the materials we import of course have themselves got associated emissions from their manufacture e.g. foodstuffs, clothes, appliances, steel. Because we import more than we export, we are indirectly generating more carbon – 60% more in fact i.e. the equivalent of all our industrial, Buildings and Transport emissions together! Until this 60% is factored in, our path to Net Zero is nonsense.
In fact the most damning evidence of our lack of progress is the absolute lack of leadership being demonstrated by our political elite, who prioritise BREXIT and GDP growth above further damage to our climate. The transformations required to achieve what we have planned take real leadership from every government department working in concert with each other. This is not happening.
And let us consider for a moment the consequences of this inaction. 1˚C temperature increase over the last 50 years. The change is accelerating so it might take another 30 years to reach a 2˚C increase. At this point scientists believe things get dangerous – tipping points are reached where planetary changes (melting ice sheets and permafrost zones) are unstoppable, removing vital carbon sinks and causing yet further temperature increases without any intervention from humans at all.
The lack of leadership shown by Government and the lack of accurate, effective communications, backed by media coverage, about the planning and mitigation required, together with the changes in legislation and changes in lifestyle behaviour required, to limit the worst impacts of climate change are truly breath-taking.
In the UK the CCC came up with the bones of an action plan. Whilst we also need to take account of and reduce our levels of consumption through imports, we have at least a starting point. We now need a genuine, co-ordinated strategy backed at the highest level and an honest, mass communication of that plan to the general public, together with practical advice on the many transformations necessary in our lifestyles, the introduction of the necessary legislation with teeth and the mass execution of this plan by all parts of our society and institutional frameworks, to change this course we are now on.