Trevor AlvesSolihull, ENG, United Kingdom
Oct 6, 2023

I have run 3 scenarios in which the timing of a single intervention has been changed and everything else proceeds as happened during the pandemic.

The 3 scenarios investigated are:

  1. The first lockdown is started on 16 March 2020, the same day as it happened in France instead of 26 March 2020.
  2. A 2 week circuit breaker is introduced on 28 September 2020
  3. The second lockdown is ended on 16 December 2020 instead of 2 December 2020.

The results are shown on my LinkedIn page https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-alves-2202538 There is a drastic effect resulting in a much more favourable outcome. The attached graph shows the cumulative deaths for the 3 scenarios, as well as the actually recorded values.

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