Petition updateAsk UK Covid Inquiry to Determine Most Suitable Lockdown Periods Using Most Precise Model
Results From 3 Scenarios
Trevor AlvesSolihull, ENG, United Kingdom

Oct 6, 2023
I have run 3 scenarios in which the timing of a single intervention has been changed and everything else proceeds as happened during the pandemic.
The 3 scenarios investigated are:
- The first lockdown is started on 16 March 2020, the same day as it happened in France instead of 26 March 2020.
- A 2 week circuit breaker is introduced on 28 September 2020
- The second lockdown is ended on 16 December 2020 instead of 2 December 2020.
The results are shown on my LinkedIn page https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-alves-2202538 There is a drastic effect resulting in a much more favourable outcome. The attached graph shows the cumulative deaths for the 3 scenarios, as well as the actually recorded values.
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