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Numbers reported by the Gaza Health Ministry set the official death toll at 38,000 Palestinians killed since the beginning of Israel's siege on the Gaza Strip; a figure supported by both the UN and WHO.

A recent study published in the journal Lancet, however, estimates the actual number killed to be over 186,000, roughly 8% of Gaza's total population (as of 2022).

In an article titled Counting the dead in Gaza: difficult but essential, authors Rasha Khatib, Martin Mckee, & Salim Yusuf, provide a far higher estimate than the official figures provided by the Health Ministry, as they attempt to calculate a total death toll including not just those killed directly by Israeli violence, but indirectly too.

By destroying Gaza's healthcare system; restricting access to food, clean water, and shelter; and inflicting grievous physical and psychological trauma upon multiple generations of Palestinians, Israel ensures the continuation of its genocide well beyond any conclusion to active hostilities, contributing to a far larger death toll than might be immediately observable to those on the ground at this moment.

In an attempt to approximate the number of Palestinians killed indirectly since October 7, the authors examine data from recent conflicts, assuming a ratio of four indirect deaths to every one direct death. Applying this ratio to the official figures from the Health Ministry, they produce their final estimate.

It is important to stress, however, that the figure of 186,000 is an estimate. This figure is, however, a conservative estimate compared to that made in this article, which suggests a total death toll of anywhere between 194,768 to 511,824.

The carnage being wreaked upon Gaza is of such a scale as to make the collection of accurate and substantive data extremely difficult, and even the Gaza Health Ministry's official numbers may not accurately reflect the full extent of this genocide in the present moment.