Supreme Court Case and Government Arguments Crumbling to Pieces
Hi All,
This week has been incredibly busy as the Government’s arguments for the Education Tax crumble before our–and their–eyes.
Education Tax case to be heard by Supreme Court:
First, I’m pleased to write that a group of Christian schools and parents will make their case against VAT to the UK Supreme Court. This was announced just this afternoon. A group of Christian Schools–including Emmanuel School in Derby, The Branch Christian School in Yorkshire, the King’s School in Hampshire and Wyclif Independent Christian School in South Wales–argued that the Government’s Education Tax disproportionately affected Christian schools and the families who choose them. They note that many of these families have modest wages, and many of these schools have school fees below the allocation given for state schools.
The Christian Legal Centre, acting on behalf of these schools, argues that the Government did not put sufficient weight on the tangible harms their tax would cause. These include financial strain on families, disruption to children’s education, and risks to the viability of schools; at the same time, they argue, the Government gave undue weight to administrative convenience and public finance considerations.
Well done to these schools and families for continuing the fight! We will keep you posted as the case progresses, but you can more information on the link below:
https://christianconcern.com/news/christian-schools-win-permission-to-appeal-vat-policy/
Latest DfE data: 43,126 fewer students in mainstream independent schools
The latest Department for Education data shows that there were 43,126 fewer students in England in January 2026, compared to January 2024. This is a drop of 7.6% – this already exceeds the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) estimates of 3-7%, and is 2.5 times worse than the government forecast for 2026.
The Independent Schools Council also revealed that their census of members shows a loss as well. The Times reported that ISC data between January 2024 and January shows a fall of 30,000 pupils in independent schools, with 20,000 of this seen in the past year. These include students in other UK countries, but only in ISC member schools.
The Government forecasted a reduction of 37,000 students over 7 years, to January 2031. We warned from the outset that this policy would force children out of their schools – and it has. We expect far bigger reductions in student numbers over the coming years, but this only emboldens our fight for repeal of this tax after the next election in 2029 (if not sooner).
We have created an infographic that explains this clearly. You can find it here. Please feel free to share!
Larger independent schools are closing…
The Times reports that larger independent schools have closed more frequently since VAT took effect, compared to previous years. Analysis by Tom Richmond, host of the Inside Your Ed podcast, He found that the average size of a closed school in 2025 was 36% higher than a closed school in 2024.
This aligns with analysis by the Education Not Taxation team. We found that 14 schools with over 200 pupils closed between 2016 and 2024–equating to an average of 1.6 schools per year. Since VAT was introduced in 2025, more than 12 schools with 200 pupils closed.
Total school closures have also markedly affected students since VAT was implemented. In 2025, 5,627 pupils (1,269 pupils with special education needs) had to find a new school because their mainstream independent school closed. This is nearly twice the average number seen between 2017 and 2024 (2,421 per year).
The Education Not Taxation team created an infographic on the closure of larger independent schools, based on the ISC figures. You can find it here.
…and the Department for Education seem confused about their own policy
Meanwhile, the Department for Education continues to show that it does not understand this policy–or their own sector. Responding to the above-mentioned piece from The Times on closure of larger schools, the Department for Education claimed that “more private schools opened than closed in 2025.”
Analysis of the Department for Education’s own data shows quite a different picture. It shows that 47 more mainstream independent schools–the schools at the heart of the Government’s tax–closed than opened in 2025. To reach their figure,the Government includes “independent special schools”, which are created to meet the highly specialised needs of children who cannot be educated in state schools. 98% of children in independent special schools have EHCPs naming that school with their education funded by local authorities– this means that these schools are not affected by the Government’s tax.
Technical guidance from HM Treasury supports this. They note:
“Pupils who are placed in a private school because their needs cannot be fully met in the state sector will not be impacted by this policy change. This is because, as set out above, their places in a private school will be funded by their LA, a devolved government (for post-16 pupils in Wales), or the EA (for pupils in Northern Ireland), all of which will be compensated for the VAT they incur on these pupils’ fees. (Section 2.27, pages 13-14)”
We created another infographic to clarify this confusion, and you can find it here.
iNews wrote a piece that made a similar claim, titled “More private schools have opened than closed since Labour’s VAT hike”. This piece included a count of the growth of independent special schools in their counts. The Education Not Taxation team worked extensively with their editor to explain the difference – and why this matters. They made changes to the body of the article, but not the headline (which is what most people will see given that it’s behind a paywall). We lodged a complaint with the Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO) and await their reply.
6,500 new teachers promised… Not going to happen.
We were told that taxing education was needed to fund 6,500 new teachers for state schools. The Department for Education published their latest workforce data yesterday (4 June), and it states that there were 1,900 fewer teachers in November 2025, compared to November 2025 (excluding further education). Moreover, there are 800 fewer people (full-time equivalent) joining state-funded schools. Guido Fawkes highlighted this, and so did National Education Union (NEU) general secretary Daniel Kebede, who called Labour’s promise of 6,500 new teachers “a fantasy”.
We warned this would happen–and it has.
Bursaries and scholarships claims
Finally, a team at UCL’s Institute of Education published a paper claiming that scholarships and bursaries for independent schools largely went to wealthy families. This paper was led by Francis Green, who is also a board member at the Private Education Policy Forum (PEPF), which is no friend of independent schools.
There was a slight problem, however: The dataset they used does not differentiate between scholarships and bursaries, and these are largely different things. We highlighted that scholarships recognise excellence, but typically have a small monetary award, whereas bursaries are needs-based and can cover 100% of fees or more. We also noted that independent schools benefit communities in other ways too, such as making their premises available for community groups – and, of course, parents are paying VAT that supposedly goes to state schools.
We highlighted these problems, along with hundreds of other supporters. PEPF responded twice, trying to clarify Green’s paper, but it didn’t help their case.
We have also created an infographic to clarify the differences between scholarships and bursaries, and you can find that here.
Survey responses
We have been working full pace, responding to the news coming out on the effects of this policy. This means it has taken longer than hoped to share what you told us about your priorities. That is coming soon!
It has also taken us longer than hoped to respond to those of you who kindly offered to help this campaign and/or share your stories. Please accept my personal apologies for that delay, and know that you are not forgotten. We will write back as soon as we can.
Call to Action: Write your MP
As the Government's case to tax education crumbles before them, we need your help now. We need MPs (of whichever party) to know this issue matters. Urge them to call to repeal this tax now, and to ensure their parties put repeal into their manifestos for the next election. Share your own experiences as well. Wherever they stand on this tax, please be civil and polite. You can find your MP on the following link: https://members.parliament.uk/members/commons
Feel free to share the infographics linked above to support your points.
Finally, a heartfelt thank you
Thank you for your incredible support for Education Not Taxation and this campaign. We are a volunteer group of parents driven by mission not money – and we work with all of you to highlight the harms of this tax and push for its repeal.
It is glaringly obvious now that we can’t improve education with a policy based on tearing schools–and children–down. We can only improve education by finding what works and ensuring that schools learn and apply best practice to give the best possible education to their pupils. It also means repealing this spiteful tax that only limits choice. This is what brings us all together, and I believe this is why we will prevail.
Thank you for your incredible support!
Best regards,
Tony Perry
Founder, Education Not Taxation