East African countries are facing a food supply crisis, which is bound to increase the cost of living and push up governments’ budget deficits this year.

The delay in the start of the March to May long rains, coupled with forecast rainfall deficits, comes in the wake of already dry conditions due to poor October to December 2018 rains over some parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. The poor short rains led to below-average crop production and deteriorating pastures in some agro-pastoral and marginal mixed farming areas.

Analyses show that rainfall levels through mid-April are likely to be the lowest on record since 1981 in some areas, particularly in southern Kenya, much of Somalia, the Somali Regional State of Ethiopia, and northern Uganda.