Path forward - notes from UNSC intervention by Marwan Muasher
Hi all,
If you have a moment, you might want to listen to Marwan Muasher’s intervention at the United Nations Security Council earlier today. Dr. Muasher is highly regarded internationally and played key roles in shaping the Arab Peace Initiative. He's the person to follow here. Here are notes from his presentation:
End of war in Gaza: that is the first priority right now and urgent.
End-state vs. transitional states: The question “who is going to rule Gaza” is the wrong question if it is not part of a clearly defined end state. The international community needs to think of an overall package that goes beyond Gaza (so that the “the day after” is a step towards that end state).
No window for successful peace talks now: None of the three key elements required for a serious Palestinian-Israeli permanent status negotiations are there:
o The United States: entering an election year, the Biden administration will not be able to muster the political influence it needs to advance a viable process.
o Israel: the current Israeli government has no willingness to engage in a peace agreement and end the occupation. And Israeli public opinion is currently largely opposed to an independent Palestinian state – even among Israelis who are opposed to the Netanyahu government.
o Palestine: the Palestinian Authority approval ratings were low even before October 7th and there have been no Palestinian elections since 2006 – no Palestinian body can legitimately claim representative authority for the Palestinian public (and of course, neither can Hamas). (Note: I would add on that point that the PLO, a separate body, has not had elections also and also suffers from lack of legitimate representation).
Elements of a successful process going forward: In this context, here is what some of the elements of a process that could be seen as serious, address the root causes of the issues and incorporates lessons from past experience:
o The United States leads a political plan that declares a priori a clearly defined objective of ending the occupation within a specified timeframe (say 3-5 years). Both sides would have to agree to the objective (Palestinians and Israelis).
o The United Nations issues a resolution recognizing a Palestinian state on the basis of the 1967 borders, with details to be worked out in a final permanent status agreement;
o Settlement activities completely frozen;
o In a reverse engineering process, negotiations are focused on the implementation of that end-state;
o Elections are held in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza and voters go to the polls to vote on the political process;
o The issue of who rules Gaza is then a step on the road rather than the question itself, and can be dealt with accordingly;
o The reconstruction of Gaza is a step along the road to a settlement with more parties stepping in (EU, Gulf States, World Bank). Syria teaches a lesson: no reconstruction has taken place in the absence of a plan for the future of the country.
o International fund for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza that helps them stay on their land.
Best wishes,
RS