The world is warming up
Since the 1970s the earth has warmed by 1 degree Celsius. Recently, scientists measured a record high temperature of almost 21 degrees in the Antarctic, an increase of 3 degrees from pre-industrial times.
Carbon Dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap sunlight in the earth’s atmosphere causing the planet to heat up. In the last 200 years we have increased carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to levels not seen in nearly a million years. Moderate changes at far lower concentrations have seen the ebb and flow of ice ages! At these levels we are risking irreversible changes – the loss of ice-caps, large increases in sea levels and massive loss of species diversity everywhere.
Why is this?
When the Industrial Revolution took off in the mid 19th Century, we started burning coal, gas and oil at an incredible rate. It was needed to support the development of new manufacturing processes that fed our rapidly expanding economies and populations.
These fossil fuels took millions of years to form, during which time much of the Earth’s carbon was captured and stored by them. This created the delicate natural balance that enabled life to flourish as we know it.
Since 1950, we have released more than 2 trillion tonnes (the weight of 9 million Empire State Buildings) of carbon into the atmosphere, in the form of carbon dioxide, the most dangerous and prevalent greenhouse gas.
So not only have we more than doubled the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, when compared to hundreds of thousands, even millions of years ago, we have done it at an incredibly fast rate.
What is the impact?
Carbon dioxide released from fossil fuels and other greenhouse gases released from a variety of other sources, block the Sun’s rays from escaping the Earth’s atmosphere – creating a greenhouse effect that heats the planet.
The change in greenhouse gas concentrations, is having a significant impact now on our weather. Not only the rising average temperatures known as global warming, but also extreme weather events like floods and droughts, shifting wildlife populations and habitats, rising seas and many other critical impacts to our natural environment.
Carbon and heat has also been captured in the oceans, warming them and making them more acidic. Some sea animals, such as shellfish and corals cannot survive in more acidic waters.
In fact, many species are dying out altogether as a result of climate change. The rich diversity of life on the planet is getting smaller by the day.
What this means if nothing is done?
Our climate is very sensitive and is not used to such sudden changes. Even now, that 1 degree temperature rise is having an effect.
Scientists have said that a 2 degree temperature rise will have even more serious consequences:
The ice stored in the earth’s poles will melt over time, which will raise sea levels by many metres, drowning low-lying areas. Many cities could disappear altogether and a large part of the world will become completely uninhabitable.
In the permanently frozen land areas that cover almost a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere, the permafrost will melt, releasing large amounts of methane, a greenhouse gas that is 84 times more harmful to the planet than carbon dioxide.
Sadly, we cannot now stop some of the planetary changes from happening. But if nothing is done, the Earth will suffer far worse and more dramatic changes before the end of this century, with devastating impacts for us and for future generations.
What we need to do – The next 10 years
We have been slow to react but all is not lost.
Scientists say we must keep the temperature rise below 2 degrees by the end of this century. Let’s look at the things that really need to happen over the next 10 years.
Lifestyle changes
Our lifestyles must change rapidly to reduce our carbon footprint: less air travel, less meat consumed, less wasteful consumption of products. Recycling should become a way of life.
We also need to understand that most of our imported goods are highly carbon-intensive, things like clothes, foods, bulk building materials, car components etc. These imports are generating carbon emissions in other parts of the world, hence we are the direct cause of emissions elsewhere. These imported emissions are as much as 60% of our own total domestic emissions (according to the Committee on Climate Change, which is the body that advises the Government). These imports are not even taken into account when we talk about the UK being ‘Net Zero’.
So we must include imports into the carbon calculations. And we must get used to consuming less of everything, and paying more through carbon taxation for carbon-intensive goods, both imported and produced at home.
Homes and buildings
Much of the building stock in the UK is heated by fossil fuel gas. Through subsidies and regulation, our homes and buildings must transition to being heated with electric heat pumps since electricity can be generated from renewable sources. We also need to improve building insulation, use high-efficiency appliances and ‘smart’ technology to optimise energy consumption.
New regulatory energy standards are essential for all new building stock as well. We mustn’t repeat the mistakes of the past.
Industry, commerce and business
All industry, commerce and business should now embark on an aggressive decarbonisation strategy, backed by incentives and supported by the advances in low-carbon technology in key industrial processes. This includes all supply chain, procurement, investment, operational and disposal phases. Examples of changes are the use of renewable electrical power and heating, use of clean hydrogen and the capture and permanent storage of carbon dioxide emitted from industry (a key process known as Carbon Capture and Storage).
Renewable energy
All power must be derived from renewable sources such as wind, wave, solar, hydro-electric, nuclear and biomass. As an example, growing plants produces biomass, that can generate electricity when combusted. It can also be used to produce synthetic fuels and hydrogen to provide a continuous energy supply for our homes and businesses and to support industry, heavy transportation and aviation. When biomass for energy is first grown, it captures carbon from the atmosphere. It is then harvested every three years and combusted in biomass power stations to produce electricity and (often) heat. The carbon dioxide gas produced during combustion can also be ‘captured’ back underground through Carbon Capture and Storage. The net effect is we generate electricity to power society and actually reduce atmospheric carbon in the process. A real winner.
How we use the Land
We need to understand through science what is the optimal use and management of our land surface. Changes to land use will then come about through incentives, legislation and through better agricultural practice. We need to increase levels of forestation, carefully preserve and enhance our natural peatlands, revert to much less animal farming and significantly increase the land available for growing biomass for energy production. All of these solutions will help to reverse land use from being a net emitter of carbon to one that permanently removes carbon and other greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere.
Transportation
Transportation must be completely de-carbonised. Electric cars are increasing but we still need a country-wide charging infrastructure in place. Specialist synthetic fuels are needed for aviation, created using renewable energy. Other heavy transportation can be powered by hydrogen, again created using renewable energy sources. These solutions, whilst generally understood in theory, are still in their infancy, and need to progress rapidly to help ensure a decarbonised future.
The first steps
Everyone must play their part.
At the top we need leadership. This should be one of the highest priorities for any Government.
Because if it is not the highest priority we will not succeed in limiting temperature rises to 2˚C and the consequences for this generation and future generations will be catastrophic!
Our leadership must be honest and transparent and show us they care. This means Manifesto commitments and mass communication, alongside developing legislation and regulation to bring change into effect.
Change can be costly at first before the benefits really kick in. We must find economic instruments that distribute the burden as fairly as possible. This means a mix of taxation, incentives, balance of risk and other support.
Our economic institutions must devise solutions to pay for these changes.
Our education, research, engineering, scientific, industrial and media institutions have a critical role to play:
• Understanding how climate change will develop and its impact
• Measuring and monitoring changes as accurately and comprehensively as possible
• Developing effective solutions; for example carbon capture and storage, hydrogen generation and synthetic fuel technologies
• Planning for new and larger electrical, carbon and hydrogen networks
• Developing effective building heat pump solutions
• Planning and delivering the precise agricultural changes required
• Communicating with people constantly, with honest and accurate information.
There needs to be a mass mobilisation of public opinion, coupled with political will, and the rapid deployment of known best-in-class solutions to these problems.
Every country will have slightly different priorities in this regard, but the overall objective is the same. The changes needed to our way of thinking and the practical steps outlined here will take time. … But we don’t have much time left, so we must work together with purpose and clarity to make these changes happen … NOW.