PredictIt​.​org should resolve the US 2020 Presidential Election Prediction Markets

PredictIt​.​org should resolve the US 2020 Presidential Election Prediction Markets

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Aaron Kreider started this petition to PredictIt.org

According to Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC - Biden has won the 2020 US Presidential Election.

"In an Associated Press tally of roughly 50 cases brought by Trump’s campaign and his allies, more than 30 have been rejected or dropped. About a dozen are awaiting action. Trump has notched just one small victory, a case challenging a decision to move the deadline to provide missing proof of identification for certain absentee ballots and mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania."  (Dec 4, 2020, AP article). The existence of frivolous lawsuits that, in my opinion and those of the courts have shown to not be based in facts, will either be denied or will not alter the election, should not cause the media to say that that election is unresolved.

Historically recounts have at the most changed the vote margin by 1247 votes (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/recounts-rarely-reverse-election-results/ The median swing was 219 votes. It is highly improbable that Trump would gain 11,000 votes in Arizona, 12,000 votes in Georgia, or 20,000 votes in Michigan. It is extremely unlikely that he would gain enough votes in NV, MI or PA.

As such, I personally estimate the probability of Trump winning the election at lower than 0.1%.

The presidential election is over. The result is known.

Therefore PredictIt should fulfill its mission by providing timely and accurate resolution on its election prediction markets. By doing so, it will further the cause of democracy by discouraging people from spreading fear, uncertainity and doubt which is not based on facts. It will also further the mission of prediction markets as being capable to do a reasonable job of judging facts and probabilities.

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