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J A Ginsburg
Skokie, IL
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J A signed the petition | -
J A commented on the article |Although it is very encouraging to see such high-power interest (incidental pun), I has some questions about Gates' TED talk. Specifically: No mention of deforestation, or the limitations of a grid-based solution (in this case, nuclear).
Willie Smits vividly described at TED 2009 (http://bit.ly/QoSNU) how Borneo achieved the #3 spot for global CO2 emissions entirely due to deforestation and the planting of massive, biodiversity-shredding oil palm plantations (which are now spreading to Africa - specifically the DRC). For all kinds of reasons, reforestation needs to be woven into the climate solution discussion.
Post COP-15, I wrote a short post on 5 technologies with real potential to move the climate dial. MIT's Daniel Nocera's scheme for biomimicking photosynthesis was the most out there in terms of not-quite-ready-for-prime-time. The rest were low tech / old tech / cheap tech / common sense tech: http://wp.me/pmHaW-hE This is by no means a definitive list.One of things I liked about Nocera's scheme - it's a distributed power approach: small, modular, scalable, flexible, resilient. And, if it lives up to promise, cheap.
Beyond nuclear's cost and the dicey issue of clean up, Gates' plan is dependent on a central power grid, which brings up security issues. Last week, a small plane hit some electric lines near Palo Alto, knocking out power for hours. How 20th century! This was a tragic accident (3 dead), but one that also underscores the vulnerability of a grid.I am very intrigued by the potential of Gates' idea to clean up stockpiles of existing nuclear waste. I am just not so sure it's wise to bet the future on such a pricey, grid-tied answer. (For more on nuclear - here's Amory Lovins' recent Grist article, complete with lively pro/con comment section: http://www.grist.org/article/2009-10-13-stewart-brands-nuclear-enthusiasm-falls-short-on-facts-and-logic)
In fact, just a few days ago on "60 Minutes," the Bloom Box fuel cell was introduced to the world. Backed by $400 million of Kleiner Perkins-raised funds, this is clearly something to sit up and investigate. It's completely grid-free and, although it requires fossil fuel to run, that fuel could be methane harvested from livestock operations or even compost toilets. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6228923n
Imagine...Haiti...
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J A signed the petition | -
J A commented on the article |While investing and debt aren't entirely two sides to a coin, Furst's "buy out" clause essentially turns an investment into debt.
His whole premise is based on the personal connection. If that's lost in the equation, it seems like it might be a lot easier to purpopse more traditional routes.
Moving on to another question: How broad do you seen these models scaling up?
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J A commented on the article |
While investing and debt aren't entirely two sides to a coin, Furst's "buy out" clause essentially turns an investment into debt.
His whole premise is based on the personal connection. If that's lost in the equation, it seems like it might be a lot easier to purpopse more traditional routes.
Moving on to another question: How broad do you seen these models scaling up?
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J A commented on the article |
While investing and debt aren't entirely two sides to a coin, Furst's "buy out" clause essentially turns an investment into debt.
His whole premise is based on the personal connection. If that's lost in the equation, it seems like it might be a lot easier to purpopse more traditional routes.
Moving on to another question: How broad do you seen these models scaling up?
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J A commented on the article |
Hello Ashni, It suspect that this is such a niche idea that that the model will customize almost on a case by case basis. As for nonprofits - that's a legal status - it doesn't mean the nfp can't make a profit. NFP's take out loans all the time, paying interest on the debt. That's a profit for the investor.
The right of first refusal is a fairly common practice in creative businesses. An author, for example, might be under obligation to a publisher who produced an earlier work. If the publisher takes a pass, the author is free to pursue other publishers. Likewise, if a PG grantor thinks a PG business idea is seriously half-baked, he can take a pass, leaving the grantee free to pursue other funds. It doesn't tie up the grantee, but provides a courtesy to the grantor.
It also doesn't mean that the grantor is the only funder, just that they had an opportunity to get in on the ground floor. Nor does it give them a controlling stake.
I think it also needs to be spelled out whether the contract itself can be bought, sold and traded, which is very common and is part of the story of why the world recently tripped into recession. This is can happen for all kinds of reasons.
The contract is an asset. Let's say the investor is forced to declare bankruptcy. Even though the investor never intended to sell this asset, he is forced to. Now a stranger with no personal connection for the grantee literally owns of a piece of them. Even if it's a small piece - eek.
It's going to be very interesting to see how all these models develop.
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J A commented on the article |
I've been folloiwng the discussion (Rafe Furst's blog, Ashni Mohnot's post on the PopTech blog, Twitter, here). The only way to figure out whether the idea works is to give it a go, which Furst is already doing via the promising "Marge." Still, I wonder whether it wouldn't be simpler simple to provide something a bit more straightforward - a "Promising Genius" grant that covers the lucky grantee with a guaranteed sum, enough to live on, for 3 to 5 years. The PG can't apply, though s/he can refuse to accept.
If you want to add a financial component, perhaps it's the right of first refusal to invest in future projects and businesses developed by the PG.
Furst's intention is terrific: (from his post): "The cash investment was intended to smooth out the earnings curve so that Marge won’t have to take jobs that don’t further her life goals just so she can eat and pay rent."
Still, sometimes I wonder whether the experience of those seemingly irrelevant jobs don't play an important role shaping the would-be superstar's philosophy and street-smart experience. How do you strike a balance between "too hard" and "too easy"?
Say it's $50K per year for 3 years (and to be really nice, let's make that *after taxes*). A chunk goes to living expenses, some to travel, some to projects. Perhaps the PG applies to a few of the pricier conferences (TED, PopTech) and has the cash to actually go. The PG networks up a storm and a virtuous circle ensues. Simply being designated a PG ought to open a bunch of doors.
In short, you are not investing in the person, but in their potential. Think of it as a hedge, a sort of futures contract on the crop of good ideas yet to sprout.
Just a thought...
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J A commented on the article |Thank you Alanna! I wonder whether the WHO scale doesn't do a disservice by *not* making more of a distinction between contagiousness and virulence. Illnesses are always "going around." In fact the White House aide recently suspected of having swine flu (oops H1N1...) apparently was recovered and back at work before anyone decided to. Ditto with his wife, son and niece. According to an AP report, the virus "had run its course." By the WHO definition, we are probably swimming in pandemics of one sort or another all the time. We'e not looking so it's a classic case of don't seek/don't find.
Without some tweaking to make it more clear to the general public what the real dangers are, I am concerned the WHO scale could backfire against future efforts to contain deadlier threats. Perhaps "6" should be "human to human transmission with suspected/projected mortality rate of x%. Add a Level 7: "Run & Hide..." -
J A commented on the article |Hi Alanna,
I've been researching all kinds of swine flu links for TrackerNews.net. Came across quite a few leads that pointed to CAFO's as smoking (stinking?) gun. I haven't written a TrackerBlog post for a while, but this was just more than I could bear. If this isn't a man-made crisis, it sure looks like a man-mediated disaster. Anyway, you might find "Follow the Pigs!" interesting: http://tinyurl.com/czk9yf
There are also a bunch of links on TN looking at research into new vaccines, tests for fake Tamiflu, etc.
- Janet
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